Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) — $41.87 +12.86%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

HPpeers & supply-chain relationships

HP fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.60M · Avg 1.21M
HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc.$41.87+12.86%Pre-market$41.870.00%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -4 — more evidence points down than up — and the balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band, 1 accounting red flag is raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-4net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 2 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$40.12
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit
at new highs
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.56
6.1% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure · stretched above 50-day · mean-reversion risk
Pullback risk
Elevated
~96% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure · stretched above 50-day · mean-reversion risk
Volume vs 20-day avg2.96× · 3.60M vs 1.21M avg
52-week range$17.30 – $41.91
Below high since 2015-52.5% · $88.11 high
Risk / reward
Plan stop$35.78
Max pain$22.50 far from the price — likely a stale options snapshot
RSI 1473.4 overbought
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$41.87
$31.58 · -24.6%-24.6%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.1% · $44.43+6.1%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
73.4
overbought
vs 50-day
$35.23
above the line · fires near $35.44
Bollinger
$30.82
no lower pierce · fires near $31.71
VWAP 20
$35.36
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $35.31
Entry level
$40.12
level below · fires near $40.52
Put wall
$30.00
OI strike below · fires below the slider range
MACD
+0.75
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
2.96×
elevated versus recent average
Short int.Static
12.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.70
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
16 Nov 2026
· in 96 days
Next dividend
USD 0.25
ex-date 2026-08-18
prices 15-min delayed