Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) — Discount Stores. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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OLLI fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.28M · 3-mo avg 1.69M

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI)

OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 8 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$89.95
near a recent low, a support level and the 200-day average · Nov 6
$94–97
near the top of its usual range, a heavy call-option level and a round-number price · midpoint $95.51 · Nov 6
±$6.91
±7.6% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
96% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume21% below normal0.79× its 20-day average
Past year's range$60.29 – $130.40lowest to highest price
From its peak36.2% belowpeak $141.74, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.52 to 1$0.52 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$80.53the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$80.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)53.5fires under 35 · fires near $74.93
Accounting warning signs3worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit18.2× next year20.2× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 18%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 30.5×
Cash it generates3.5%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 2.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 41% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
53.5
fires under 35 · fires near $74.93
vs 50-day
●
$84.07
above the line · fires near $84.71
Bollinger
●
$83.98
no lower pierce · fires near $82.72
VWAP 20
✓
$90.60
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$89.95
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$85.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-06
MACD
Context●
-0.17
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.79×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
13.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.06
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-12-09
in 22 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file