Deep dive · NYSE: NP
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Street are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +1 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.24, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, sentiment vote up. 1 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves, insider flow vote down. 3 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Street.
What it changes
Size, not direction. and the binding position cap is 2.9% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean-2.08%
FrankfurtSN4-4.17%⏱ZurichNP0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
+27% to the average target
62% buy · 39% hold · 0% sell
median target $35
median target $35
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $31.54 · -12.8%
200-day $27.43 · +0.3%
200-day $27.43 · +0.3%
Earnings
In 46 days
11 Nov 2026
beat ≤1 of the last 4
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.23 · vol 25% ann.
worst drawdown -44%
worst drawdown -44%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does254 chars
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Neptune Flood Incorporated, operates as an insurance agency that engages in selling residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners in the United States.
NYSE · USDInsurance Brokers
$27.51+0.41 · +1.51%CLOSED · vol 654.8K
52-week range↑ 86% off low · ↓ 21.7% off high
$14.78now $27.51$35.15
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 9:42 AM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 3.2 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
3.21SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
59th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
0.00%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.00%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueELEVATED
7.2%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowRISING
22%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
67 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 4.70Altman-Z in the safe zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not applicable to this sector · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026GOOD · 75/100
Business quality
23% net margin, -16% return on equity, +34% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
75 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
23.4%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
58.7%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
50.1%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-16.4%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)+34% YoY
$167.99M
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-19.4%
3 months-9.7%
6 months+19.5%
Year to date-1.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+33.7%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-338.8%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 40%
40 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsJul 21, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤1 OF THE LAST 4
1 of 4
Its own record against consensus. 4 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 4 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.64× COHORT
Persistent
misses more often than it beats, by small margins
Next reportIN 46 DAYS
11 Nov 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $0.16 · revenue 56.2 M
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.11 over 40 bars
Spinning top
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%195,526
21d49%-0.1%92,054
63d50%0.0%29,367
small body, shadows both sides
Bullish harami · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%130,421
21d48%-0.2%61,471
63d49%-0.2%19,639
small body inside prior bearish
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Rsi oversold · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%225,518
21d48%0.0%106,358
63d50%0.0%33,595
RSI 29 ≤ 30
03
Price & timing
Price $27.51, RSI 29.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $31.54 · 200-day $27.43. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 248 sessions2025-10-01 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 1.51% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERSOLD
29
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.7%
$1.28
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.52
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position11% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$30.42
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$31.27
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
11 Nov 2026 · in 46 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 24 Jul; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line0.98× segment rate · n=626
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 77% of cases (n=626).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.6σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$26 – $273 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Sma 200 at $27.43, Pivot low at $27.42, S1 at $26.89.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
98 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-4.41pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported129.1×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit23.3×
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
2 of the 2 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1 + sma 200
$27.37In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetSma 50 + vwap 50
$31.47$31–$32
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$24.81risk $2.56/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.60:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+14.6%
short-term trend line · $31.54
To the 200-day
-0.3%
primary trend line · $27.43
To the composer's target
+14.4%
Sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $31.47
To the composer's stop
-9.8%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $24.81
To the 52-week high
+27.8%
highest print of the past year · $35.15
To the 52-week low
-46.3%
lowest print of the past year · $14.78
A typical day (ATR)
$26.23 – $28.79
±$1.28 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $27.37 · stop $24.81 · target $31.47, a 1.60:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 70%, short interest is 3.65% of float, and 13 analysts average $35.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
2 analyst downgrades in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 4%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($124,115,283 across 10 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (80/100)
Signal
2 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 25, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.24 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street13 covering firms
Consensus rating13 ANALYSTS
Buy
62% buy · 39% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 13 covering firms.
Median price target+27%
$35
$31now $28$39
A $31–$39 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$0.67
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Morgan Stanley$36↑51/100
BMO Capital$32↓52/100
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods$33↓60/100
Wells Fargo$37↑52/100
Evercore ISI Group$36↑52/100
Piper Sandler$39↑57/100
JP Morgan$30↑53/100
Mizuho$32↑51/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
70.2%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
22.1%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
3.65%
Falling — shares short changed -22.1% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float52% OF SHARES
49.54M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)70th PCTILE
$19.80M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Steiner James · Director, Chief Financial OfficerSellnot on file—14 Sep
Steiner James · Director, Chief Financial OfficerSell$1.8M—13 Aug
Steiner James · Director, Chief Financial OfficerSell$1.3M—12 Aug
Steiner James · Director, Chief Financial OfficerBuynot on file—09 Sep
Steiner James · Director, Chief Financial OfficerSellnot on file—09 Sep
Steiner James · Director, Chief Financial OfficerBuynot on file—14 Sep
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+1.51%
NP rose +1.51% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
News tone · 7-day-5
75 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 44 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuNeptune Insurance Holdings (NP) Following Its Recent Run Looks Undervalued By The Leading NarrativeSimply Wall St.not scored
ThuNeptune Insurance Holdings (NP) Following Its Recent Run Looks Undervalued By The Leading Narrative - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Sep 17Neptune Insurance CFO Steiner James Discloses 800,000-Share Code-J Transactions - kalkinemedia.comkalkinemedia.comnot scored
Sep 16Neptune Insurance (NP) CFO restructures 3.35M-share stake with no change in ownership - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Sep 16Neptune Insurance (NP) shifts 400K shares to a trust while keeping stake at 4.28M - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Sep 16(SEC Amendment) Neptune Insurance(NP.US) Officer Sells US$3.14 Million in Common Stock - MoomooMoomoonot scored
Sep 16Neptune Insurance (NP) CFO unloads 100,000 shares in August trades - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
Sep 16Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Slips to $30.55 as Shares Consolidate Below Resistance - Volatility Smile - CarePlus VietNamCarePlus VietNamnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.23, 25% annual volatility, a -44% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-43.8%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.23
The market explains about 0.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
25%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure70
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves2 analyst downgrades in 90d90d · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($124,115,283 across 10 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.9%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.9% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
20.6%6.9× its cohort · financials
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this financials segment: 3.0%. This name reads 6.9× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 38.6% · tail cap 2.9% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.9% is the number (n=70,004). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 1.8% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -44%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 25% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.9% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
21 logged
21 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on NPTHIS NAME
21
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksINSURANCE BROKERS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-51.6% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
MRSHPeer$171.12+0.70%
AONPeer$277.99+0.69%
AJGPeer$231.10+1.75%
WTWPeer$293.99+0.12%
BROPeer$60.82+0.81%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-10-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 20, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
More missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 20 of 48 report days
Across the last 48 Initial jobless claims reports since Oct 9, 2025, NP moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
More mortgages get written.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +2.0% · Two weeks later +1.6% · Rose on 6 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 Housing starts reports since Oct 21, 2025, NP moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 5 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 Industrial production reports since Oct 16, 2025, NP moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
More card swipes and consumer borrowing when spending is strong.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 5 of 11 report days
Across the last 11 Retail sales reports since Oct 16, 2025, NP moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 13 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +1.8% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 7 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Oct 26, 2025, NP moved +1.8% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 3 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedEmployed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +1.1% · A week later +1.5% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 6 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Nov 5, 2025, NP moved +1.1% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 6 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedEmployed people repay loans and borrow more; banks benefit.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +3.8% · Rose on 7 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Nov 5, 2025, NP moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 3.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Unemployment rate is due in 6 days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expectedMore missed loan payments and less borrowing; lower rates also thin banks' margins.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.9% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +5.2% · Rose on 6 of 9 report days
Across the last 9 Unemployment rate reports since Dec 6, 2025, NP moved +0.9% on average on the day and was 5.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
AIG · Competitorcompetitor-0.87%Rumored · manual
PGR · Competitorcompetitor+1.65%Rumored · manual
0 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.