Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) — $35.49 +6.35%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

MURpeers & supply-chain relationships

MUR fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.79M · Avg 1.78M
MURMurphy Oil Corporation$35.49+6.35%Pre-market$35.60+0.31%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

3 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+6net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 6 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
3 of 6 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$35.31
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$36–37
center $36.19 · basis · daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.31
6.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~95% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.00× · 1.79M vs 1.78M avg
52-week range$21.86 – $43.34
Below high since 2015-33.6% · $53.43 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.2
Plan stop$31.62
Max pain$22.50 options cluster
RSI 1447.0 fires under 35 · fires near $31.71
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$35.49
$27.43 · -22.7%-22.7%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.5% · $37.80+6.5%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
47.0
fires under 35 · fires near $31.71
vs 50-day
$36.25
below the line
Bollinger
$33.10
no lower pierce · fires near $32.52
VWAP 20
$36.56
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$35.31
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$27.50
OI strike below · fires near $27.63
MACD
-0.45
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.00×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
9.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.85
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
4 Nov 2026
· in 85 days
Next dividend
USD 0.34
ex-date 2026-08-17
prices 15-min delayed