Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) — Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.75M · 3-mo avg 1.68M

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)

MURMurphy Oil Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
0net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 34/100 · Nov 9
$34.38
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9
$36–37
near a round-number price and the 200-day average · midpoint $36.61 · Nov 9
±$2.69
±7.8% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 11% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 11% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volumenormal1.00× its 20-day average
Past year's range$26.49 – $45.03lowest to highest price
From its peak35.3% belowpeak $53.43, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.52 to 1$0.52 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$30.57the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)31.9washed out
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit9.1× next year17.1× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 70%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 10.2×
Cash it generates3.9%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 3.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 56% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
31.9
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$38.84
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$34.75
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$40.22
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$34.38
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.73
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.00×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
7.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.90
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-27
in 53 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.35
ex-date 2026-11-16