Deep dive · NYSE: MPT
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Medical Properties Trust, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Positioning and Trend are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +2 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.30, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
insider flow, sentiment vote up. 1 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves vote down. 3 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Positioning against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; and the binding position cap is 2.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean-0.15%
FrankfurtM3P-1.30%⏱London0JZZ+1.07%⏱ZurichMPT0.00%⏱MéxicoMPW*-0.36%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 4 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Sell
+40% to the average target
38% buy · 38% hold · 25% sell
median target $5
median target $5
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $4.08 · -12.6%
200-day $4.63 · -22.9%
200-day $4.63 · -22.9%
Earnings
In 33 days
29 Oct 2026 · options imply ±7.7%
beat ≤2 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
71.4× forward
Against consensus earnings
5yr median 16×
FCF yield 10.82%
FCF yield 10.82%
Dividend
10.08%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 0 clear
beta 0.49 · vol 46% ann.
worst drawdown -40%
worst drawdown -40%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYSE · USDHealthcare REITs
$3.57-0.03 · -0.83%CLOSED · vol 6.80M
52-week range↑ 6% off low · ↓ 44.8% off high
$3.36now $3.57$6.47
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 23, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 0.0 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 1.0×, and 0 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
0.01DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.51×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital2.13
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill1.0×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.65
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$9.29B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
24th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldISSUING
-37.44%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.85%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
2.7%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
38 / 100
1 critical · 3 watch · 0 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 0.00Altman-Z in the distress zone · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not applicable to this sector · fundamentals
LeverageWATCHLTD/E 1.97long-term debt 1.97× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/9Piotroski F-score 4 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026POOR · 30/100
Business quality
-29% net margin, -6% return on equity, -2% revenue growth, and capital earning 3% against a 5% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
30 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-28.5%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
96.3%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
55.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-6.0%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-1.7pp
Earns 3% on invested capital that costs about 5%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Revenue (TTM)-2% YoY
$1.00B
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-11.4%
3 months-22.7%
6 months-21.2%
Year to date-29.7%
1 year-27.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-2.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-11.6%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 23%
23 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsApr 30, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
1 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Beat and still fellSHARE OF ALL PRINTS
13%
Of every report in the window, this share both beat consensus and closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
63%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.2%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
10.08%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
1-2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.28 over 40 bars
Long legged doji
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%172,242
21d49%0.0%81,011
63d49%-0.2%25,751
indecision, long shadows
0371.4× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $3.57, 71.4× forward earnings, RSI 40, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $4.08 · 200-day $4.63. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 0.83% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
40
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.1%
$0.15
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.02
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position31% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$3.69
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$3.62
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
29 Oct 2026 · in 33 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,098
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.08× segment rate · n=11,955
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=11,955).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.8σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$3 – $43 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $3.53, Pivot low at $3.36, Low 52w at $3.36.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
35 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,098) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-15.55
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months71.4×5yr median 16×
Trailing P/EThe company lost money over the trailing year, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit2.2×5yr median 3.5×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.5×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay14.1×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off49.5×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value10.82%
3 of the 6 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + pivot low + S1
$3.55In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + vwap 50
$3.97$4–$4
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$3.25risk $0.30/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.39:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+14.4%
short-term trend line · $4.08
To the 200-day
+29.7%
primary trend line · $4.63
To the put wall
+12.0%
heaviest put open interest · $4.00
To the call wall
+12.0%
heaviest call open interest · $4.00
To the composer's target
+11.2%
Round + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $3.97
To the composer's stop
-8.9%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 25, 2026 · $3.25
To the 52-week high
+81.2%
highest print of the past year · $6.47
To the 52-week low
-5.9%
lowest print of the past year · $3.36
Options-implied week ±7.7%
$3.30 – $3.84
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$3.42 – $3.72
±$0.15 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $3.55 · stop $3.25 · target $3.97, a 1.39:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 26, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-25 expiry · Chain · Sep 26, 2026
Max pain+12.2%
$4.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.60
62% calls
38% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.24
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $0.27
±7.7%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$4.00CALL2,342
$3.50CALL1,149
$4.00PUT1,128
$3.50PUT857
$4.50PUT309
$5.00CALL287
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-25 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $4.00
0
$8.00
00
$7.50
00
$7.00
00
$6.50
00
$6.00
20
$5.50
7287
$5.00
29230
$4.50
3092k
$4.00
1k1k
$3.50
85741
$3.00
1032
$2.50
1561
$2.00
07
$1.50
01
$1.00
1272
$0.50
6
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$6.47+81.5%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$4.00+12.2%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$4.00+12.2%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$4.08+14.6%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$4.00+12.2%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 63%, short interest is 29.61% of float, and 2 analysts average $5.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
1 price-target cut in 90d
Insider flow120D · TIMING
+2
net insider buying ($9,545 across 1 buy) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (100/100)
Signal
2 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.30 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street2 covering firms
Consensus rating2 ANALYSTS
Sell
38% buy · 38% hold · 25% sell, as a share of the 2 covering firms.
Median price target+40%
$5
$4now $4$7
A $4–$7 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$0.05
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Wells Fargo$4↓52/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
63.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
17.5%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
29.61%
Rising — shares short changed +0.6% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float82% OF SHARES
490.69M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)74th PCTILE
$28.55M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Hanna James Kevin · Senior VP, Controller & CAOBuy$9,545—20 Aug
Aldag Edward K JR · Director, Chairman, President & CEOTax withholding$504,486—08 Jul
Portal Larry H · SVP, Senior Advisor to the CEOTax withholding$18,661—08 Jul
LAMBERT CHARLES R · SVP of Finance and TreasurerTax withholding$10,820—08 Jul
Hanna James Kevin · Senior VP, Controller & CAOTax withholding$15,190—08 Jul
Williams Rosa Handley · SVP of OperationsTax withholding$8,934—08 Jul
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-0.83%
MPT fell −0.83% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Medical Properties Trust, Inc. $MPT Shares Newly Acquired by State Street Corp - MarketBeat” (MarketBeat).
News tone · 7-day—
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriMedical Properties Trust, Inc. $MPT Shares Newly Acquired by State Street Corp - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
FriMedical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Latest Stock News & Headlines - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuMPT Sep 2026 8.000 put (MPT260925P00008000) interactive stock chart – Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance SingaporeYahoo Finance Singaporenot scored
ThuMPT Sep 2026 1.000 put (MPT260925P00001000) interactive stock chart – Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance SingaporeYahoo Finance Singaporenot scored
ThuMPT Sep 2026 9.000 put (MPT260925P00009000) interactive stock chart - Yahoo Finance AustraliaYahoo Finance Australianot scored
ThuMPT Sep 2026 3.000 call (MPT260925C00003000) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuMPT Sep 2026 8.000 put (MPT260925P00008000) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuMPT Sep 2026 1.000 put (MPT260925P00001000) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Evenly split.
1 of 2 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.49, 46% annual volatility, a -40% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-40.1%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.49
The market explains about 3.0% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
46%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure62
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves1 price-target cut in 90d90d · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
13.6%0.9× its cohort · $1–$5 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this $1–$5 names segment: 14.8%. This name reads 0.9× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 7.4% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
MedPost-earnings driftMove already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -40%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 46% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 33 days, and the chain prices ±7.7% for the week.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
39 logged
39 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on MPTTHIS NAME
39
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksHEALTHCARE REITS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-75.2% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
WELLCompetitor$231.37-0.96%
VTRPeer$86.59-0.28%
OHIPeer$46.28-0.11%
DOCPeer$20.31+0.20%
AHRPeer$52.02-0.55%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 20, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later -2.3% · Rose on 13 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, MPT moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 2.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; higher rates raise their costs and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -1.7% · Two weeks later -1.9% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, MPT moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedProperty companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later -2.3% · Rose on 13 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, MPT moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 2.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 14 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MPT moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 14 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MPT moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Lower rates ease property companies' heavy borrowing costs.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 84 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, MPT moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Property companies borrow heavily; hotter inflation means costlier loans and lower building values.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MPT moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong jobs push rates up, and property companies borrow heavily.
Typical for the Real Estate sector
On the day -1.3% · A week later -2.7% · Two weeks later -1.9% · Rose on 17 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, MPT moved -1.3% on average on the day and was 1.9% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentumSep 26, 2026
Customer momentumBOTTOM
-14.5%
The dependency-weighted trailing return of the customers this company discloses a revenue dependence on. Their tape leads its orders.
Lead-lag gapAHEAD OF CUSTOMERS
+2.0%
This company's own move less its customers' weighted move. A wide gap in either direction usually closes.
Disclosed customer dependencies
CustomerRevenue weightWindow returnLast filed
4ZG.F9.5%-14.5%2015-05-11 · stale
Weights are as disclosed in the filings, so they describe the last reported period rather than today. Historical, point-in-time backtest of a cross-sectional screen (135 months, 2013-2026), gross of trading costs. The equal-weighted base effect is marginal (t 1.84); statistical significance relies on the dependency weighting (t 2.02). Validated on monthly rebalancing; served daily on the same 21-bar horizon. This is a research screen describing a group-level historical spread - not a forecast of any individual stock's return.
Connections1 link · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
WELL · Competitorcompetitor-0.96%Confirmed · manual
1 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
WELLCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.