Deep dive · NMS: MDLN
Medline Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Medline Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Trend are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at 0 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.33, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings vote up. 1 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
analyst moves, insider flow vote down. 3 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
FrankfurtL100.00%⏱ZurichMDLN0.00%⏱MéxicoMDLN*0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 3 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
+30% to the average target
85% buy · 15% hold · 0% sell
median target $45
median target $45
Earnings
In 38 days
4 Nov 2026 · options imply ±8.7%
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Valuation
21.9× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 4.26%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.61 · vol 43% ann.
worst drawdown -37%
worst drawdown -37%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NMS · USDMedical Instruments & Supplies
$34.70+0.04 · +0.12%CLOSED · vol 7.80M
52-week range↑ 10% off low · ↓ 31.8% off high
$31.49now $34.70$50.88
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 3.2 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
3.17SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)THIN
3.9σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.53%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreNA
n/a
Piotroski F-score not available. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills4.29×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.18
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$10.69B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
0th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.07%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.3%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
83 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.17Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.65long-term debt 0.65× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityNAn/aPiotroski F-score not available · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Jun 22, 2026FAIR · 54/100
Business quality
4% net margin, 11% return on equity.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
54 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Jun 22, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
4.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
26.4%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
7.8%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
10.8%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
56th pctile
The balance sheet grew +7% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.1%
3 months-12.4%
6 months-16.1%
Year to date-14.6%
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-101.5%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 35%
35 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 5, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameTRAILING
3 of 3
Its own record against consensus. 3 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 3 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 38 DAYS
4 Nov 2026
Reports bmo · consensus EPS $0.39 · revenue 7.7 B
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.13 over 40 bars
Inverted hammer · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%88,270
21d50%0.0%41,664
63d49%-0.4%13,200
long upper shadow, small body at bottom
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
0321.9× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $34.70, 21.9× forward earnings, RSI 52, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
52COOL
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 194 sessions2025-12-17 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 0.12% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.9%
$1.37
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.30
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position61% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$33.84
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$32.89
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $35 · S1 $34
$34.82
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
4 Nov 2026 · in 38 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.23× segment rate · n=5,834
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 81% of cases (n=5,834).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.4σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$32 – $353 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $34.64, S1 at $34.35, Pivot low at $33.10.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-2.85pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-13.16
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months21.9×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported43.4×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.8×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay13.4×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off31.7×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value4.26%
2 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$34.53In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50
$35.53$35–$36
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$31.80risk $2.73/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.37:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+2.8%
short-term trend line · $35.68
To the put wall
-20.7%
heaviest put open interest · $27.50
To the call wall
+0.9%
heaviest call open interest · $35.00
To the composer's target
+2.4%
Daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $35.53
To the composer's stop
-8.4%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $31.80
To the 52-week high
+46.6%
highest print of the past year · $50.88
To the 52-week low
-9.3%
lowest print of the past year · $31.49
Options-implied week ±8.7%
$31.70 – $37.70
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$33.33 – $36.07
±$1.37 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $34.53 · stop $31.80 · target $35.53, a 0.37:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 27, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-10-16 · Chain · Sep 27, 2026
Max pain+0.9%
$35.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
1.62
38% calls
62% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.08
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $3.00
±8.7%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$27.50PUT3,009
$35.00CALL2,274
$32.50PUT1,569
$37.50CALL417
$40.00CALL187
$35.00PUT143
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-10-16CallsPutsMax pain $35.00
30
$45.00
08
$42.50
0187
$40.00
0417
$37.50
262k
$35.00
14327
$32.50
2k30
$30.00
880
$27.50
3k0
$25.00
211
$22.50
08
$20.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$50.88+46.6%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$35.00+0.9%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$35.00+0.9%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$35.68+2.8%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$27.50-20.7%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 115%, short interest is 12.11% of float, and 24 analysts average $45.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
9 price-target cuts in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 56%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($161,930,868 across 10 sells) in 120d
Signal
1 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.33 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street24 covering firms
Consensus rating24 ANALYSTS
Buy
85% buy · 15% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 24 covering firms.
Median price target+30%
$45
$34now $35$55
A $34–$55 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$1.59
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
UBS$43↓52/100
BTIG$55→60/100
JP Morgan$46↓53/100
Tigress Financial$55↓52/100
Wells Fargo$34↓52/100
TD Cowen$45↓48/100
RBC Capital$46↓53/100
Truist Securities$47↓51/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
115.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
12.11%
Rising — shares short changed +14.2% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float39% OF SHARES
341.00M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)93rd PCTILE
$260.15M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Miller Stephen L · Chief Operating OfficerAwardnot on file—19 Aug
Boyle James M · Director, Chief Executive OfficerAwardnot on file—19 Aug
GIC Private Ltd · 10% ownerSell$53.7M—13 Aug
GIC Private Ltd · 10% ownerSell$3.6M—14 Aug
GIC Private Ltd · 10% ownerSell$21.0M—07 Aug
GIC Private Ltd · 10% ownerSell$60.7M—05 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+0.12%
MDLN was little changed +0.12% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Kaplan Fox Reminds Investors of Medline Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLN) of an Ongoing Investigation into Potential Securities Law Violations - barchart.com” (barchart.com).
News tone · 7-day—
43 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriKaplan Fox Reminds Investors of Medline Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLN) of an Ongoing Investigation into Potential Securities Law Violations - barchart.combarchart.comnot scored
FriMDLN Stock Drop Alert: Medline Stock Plummets 13% after - GlobeNewswireGlobeNewswirenot scored
ThuAndra AP fonden Makes New Investment in Medline $MDLN - MarketBeatMarketBeatnot scored
ThuMDLN Oct 2026 30.000 put (MDLN261016P00030000) interactive stock chart - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
WedKaplan Fox Announces an Investigation of Medline Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLN) on Behalf of Investors - Barchart.comBarchart.comnot scored
WedWilliam Blair Maintains Medline(MDLN.US) With Buy Rating - MoomooMoomoonot scored
Wed$MDLN Stock Notification: Medline Inc. is Being - GlobeNewswireGlobeNewswirenot scored
TueMedline gains as investors revisit growth outlook after upbeat conference remarks - Quiver QuantitativeQuiver Quantitativenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.61, 43% annual volatility, a -37% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-36.7%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.61
The market explains about 2.9% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
43%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure16
Overheat22
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowAnalyst moves9 price-target cuts in 90d90d · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($161,930,868 across 10 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
6.5%0.7× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.7× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 7.7% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
MedPost-earnings driftMove already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history1 restatement in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -37%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 43% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 38 days, and the chain prices ±8.7% for the week.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
19 logged
19 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on MDLNTHIS NAME
19
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksMEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-9.7% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
ISRGPeer$405.18+1.42%
BDXPeer$183.82+2.56%
ALCPeer$64.47-0.14%
RMDPeer$222.00+0.05%
WSTPeer$370.44-0.85%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2025-12-17
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Inflation (CPI) reactionn=9
0.70×
On these days it moves about 0.7× the market, regardless of company news.
Jobs report reactionn=9
1.23×
On these days it moves about 1.2× the market, regardless of company news.
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=9
0.84×
On these days it moves about 0.8× the market, regardless of company news.
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=9
0.96×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 27, 2026
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 21 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Initial jobless claims reports since Dec 25, 2025, MDLN moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.9% · A week later -2.1% · Two weeks later -4.4% · Rose on 3 of 9 report days
Across the last 9 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Dec 29, 2025, MDLN moved -0.9% on average on the day and was 4.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on rates.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later -2.6% · Two weeks later -2.1% · Rose on 6 of 9 report days
Across the last 9 FOMC decision reports since Dec 31, 2025, MDLN moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 2.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationLittle effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.9% · A week later -2.1% · Two weeks later -4.4% · Rose on 3 of 9 report days
Across the last 9 PCE inflation reports since Dec 29, 2025, MDLN moved -0.9% on average on the day and was 4.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later -1.6% · Two weeks later -3.6% · Rose on 4 of 8 report days
Across the last 8 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Dec 26, 2025, MDLN moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 3.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +1.0% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +2.4% · Rose on 5 of 8 report days
Across the last 8 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jan 12, 2026, MDLN moved +1.0% on average on the day and was 2.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
On the day +0.1% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 5 of 8 report days
Across the last 8 Housing starts reports since Jan 20, 2026, MDLN moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Healthcare does not track the business cycle.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 5 of 8 report days
Across the last 8 Industrial production reports since Jan 15, 2026, MDLN moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
CAH · Competitorcompetitor-1.08%Confirmed · manual
MMM · Suppliersupplier+1.21%Rumored · manual
1 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.