Deep dive · NYSE: MAIR
Madison Air Solutions Corporation stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Madison Air Solutions Corporation. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — MAIR trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Earnings
In 46 days
12 Nov 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Valuation
19.6× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 3.48%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 1.74 · vol 40% ann.
worst drawdown -46%
worst drawdown -46%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does140 chars
Madison Air Solutions Corporation manufactures and sells indoor air quality products and solutions in the United States and internationally.
NYSE · USDBuilding Products & Equipment
$25.16+0.79 · +3.24%CLOSED · vol 2.12M
52-week range↑ 10% off low · ↓ 43.5% off high
$22.91now $25.16$44.50
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jun 23, 2026
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.67×healthy >2
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$5.44B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
25th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.31Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.43M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCRITICALLTD/E 68.48long-term debt 68.48× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026FAIR · 48/100
Business quality
1% net margin, -83% return on equity, +34% revenue growth, and capital earning 9% against a 11% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
48 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
0.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
38.8%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
14.3%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-83.2%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-2.3pp
Earns 9% on invested capital that costs about 11%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-7.4%
3 months-32.3%
Year to date-20.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+34.1%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-2.3%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 12%
12 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsJul 30, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameTRAILING
1 of 1
Its own record against consensus. 1 print is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 1 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 46 DAYS
12 Nov 2026
Reports bmo · consensus EPS $0.30 · revenue 990.8 M
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.31 over 40 bars
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0319.6× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $25.16, 19.6× forward earnings, RSI 45.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
45COOL
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 113 sessions2026-04-16 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 3.24% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.3%
$1.09
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.32
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position55% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$24.94
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$25.62
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $26 · S1 $25
$24.99
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
12 Nov 2026 · in 46 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 3 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.23× segment rate · n=5,861
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 81% of cases (n=5,861).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.2σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$24 – $252 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $24.75, S1 at $24.63.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
6 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-3.48pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-11.13
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months19.6×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported58.5×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit3.6×
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay25.9×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off41.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value3.48%
3 of the 6 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$25.03In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetSma 50 + vwap 50
$28.48$28–$29
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$22.85risk $2.19/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.57:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+13.3%
short-term trend line · $28.51
To the composer's target
+13.2%
Sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $28.48
To the composer's stop
-9.2%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $22.85
To the 52-week high
+76.9%
highest print of the past year · $44.50
To the 52-week low
-8.9%
lowest print of the past year · $22.91
A typical day (ATR)
$24.07 – $26.25
±$1.09 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $25.03 · stop $22.85 · target $28.48, a 1.57:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 71%, short interest is 6.32% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 28%
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
70.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
36.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
6.32%
Rising — shares short changed +39.2% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float71% OF SHARES
124.74M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)83rd PCTILE
$69.64M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
+3.24%
MAIR rose +3.24% since the last close alongside 3 of 4 peers (median 3.48%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.74, 40% annual volatility, a -46% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-46.5%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.74
Moves about 1.7× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
40%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure43
Buying pressure8
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
13.9%1.5× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 1.5× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.8% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -46%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 40% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.74 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
25 logged
25 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on MAIRTHIS NAME
25
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksBUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Next macro catalyst
Job Openings (JOLTS)IN 2 DAYS
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
TTPeer$454.44+3.63%
JCIPeer$150.20+3.33%
CARRPeer$56.37+2.73%
DKILFPeer$132.87+1.55%
CODGFPeer$82.70+7.26%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2026-04-16
Signal
Every backward window is negative.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Events · what moves this stockSep 20, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising layoffs signal factories and builders are slowing.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later -0.7% · Two weeks later -3.2% · Rose on 12 of 20 report days
Across the last 20 Initial jobless claims reports since Apr 23, 2026, MAIR moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 3.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Every new home needs their products.
Typical for the Building Products & Equipment industry
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later -4.4% · Rose on 3 of 4 report days
Only 4 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 4 Housing starts reports since May 21, 2026, MAIR moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 4.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -2.9% · A week later -2.8% · Two weeks later -6.2% · Rose on 1 of 4 report days
Only 4 reports on file, so treat this as a sketch, not a pattern. Across the last 4 Industrial production reports since May 16, 2026, MAIR moved -2.9% on average on the day and was 6.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Durable goods ordersUsually helps when orders come in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
No price history on file yet for MAIR around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
No price history on file yet for MAIR around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Government shutdown / funding deadlineUsually hurts when funding lapses and the government shuts down
Government contracts and payments stop; defense and services contractors feel it first.
Typical for the Industrials sector
No price history on file yet for MAIR around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Hurricane landfall (Gulf or Atlantic)Usually helps when a major hurricane hits
Rebuilding needs their products.
Typical for the Building Products & Equipment industry
No price history on file yet for MAIR around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
ISM manufacturing PMIUsually helps when factories report stronger conditions than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
No price history on file yet for MAIR around this report. The read above is for its sector as a whole.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
RS · Suppliersupplier+0.39%Rumored · manual
GE · Customercustomer+2.29%Rumored · manual
CAT · Competitorcompetitor+2.03%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.