Everything behind the call on LG Display Co., Ltd. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Quality and Trend are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at -1 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.42, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
quality / value vote up. 2 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
earnings vote down. 2 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Quality against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −10.8%; and the binding position cap is 2.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tape
No overseas listings — LPL trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $3.21 · -7.2% 200-day $4.05 · -26.5%
Earnings
In 38 days
5 Nov 2026
beat ≤2 of the last 8 cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
28.0× forward
Against consensus earnings
5yr median 6× FCF yield 16,442.95%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 2.21 · vol 41% ann. worst drawdown -52%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does285 chars
LG Display Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) and thin-film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) panels in South Korea, China, the rest of Asia, North America, and Europe.
Altman-Z of 1.0 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 5.6×, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.00DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 3, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)STRESSED
-25.0σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Structural snapshot · Sep 28, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
25.48%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Profitability qualityCLEARF 8/9Piotroski F-score 8 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 28, 2026POOR · 31/100
Business quality
1% net margin, 3% return on equity, -3% revenue growth, and capital earning 2% against a 3% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
31 / 100POOR
Profitability · net margin 1%
Growth · revenue -3% YoY
Balance strength · debt/equity 1.93
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 28, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
0.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
13.1%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
2.0%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
3.4%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-1.7pp
Earns 2% on invested capital that costs about 3%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
-10.8%
3 months
-24.9%
6 months
-23.4%
Year to date
-29.9%
1 year
-42.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-3.0%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-32.4%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 20%
20 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
cohort n=20,787 · this name's own n=8 · since 2000
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
2 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
n=8 measured prints
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 2 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.64× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs high for this name — it usually falls short
As of · May 14, 2026
Next reportIN 38 DAYS
5 Nov 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $0.09 · revenue 6.88 T
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%650,507
21d51%+0.1%304,974
63d53%+0.5%96,330
flat resistance, rising support
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%703,989
21d47%-0.5%329,866
63d47%-1.4%104,513
U-base + small handle pullback
0328.0× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $2.98, 28.0× forward earnings, RSI 41.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $3.21 · 200-day $4.05. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 2.76% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$1.49B
Day range$2.92 – $3.00
Above 52-week low+8%
Realized volatility41% ann.
Worst drawdown-51.6%
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
41
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.4%
$0.13
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.01
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position25% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$3.15
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$3.04
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
5 Nov 2026 · in 38 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 25 Jul; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · tomorrowJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.08× segment rate · n=11,971
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=11,971).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.0σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$3 – $33 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $2.93, Pivot low at $2.76, Low 52w at $2.76.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
12 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-22,303.52
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months28.0×5yr median 6×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.0×5yr median 0.2×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay2.0×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off45.5×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value16,442.95%
2 of the 6 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of 52-week low + pivot low + S1
$2.97In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$3.21$3–$3
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$2.66risk $0.30/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.81:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+7.7%
short-term trend line · $3.21
To the 200-day
+36.0%
primary trend line · $4.05
To the composer's target
+7.7%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $3.21
To the composer's stop
-10.7%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 25, 2026 · $2.66
To the 52-week high
+95.6%
highest print of the past year · $5.83
To the 52-week low
-7.4%
lowest print of the past year · $2.76
A typical day (ATR)
$2.85 – $3.11
±$0.13 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $2.97 · stop $2.66 · target $3.21, a 0.81:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 8%, short interest is 1.52% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-1BALANCED · 30d
Earnings -3
Quality / value +2
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-3
latest EPS missed by 191%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (8/9)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 27, 2026
Signal
The evidence families are split down the middle.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.42 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
A check on whether independent evidence families agree, rather than a second score.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
7.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.2%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.52%
Falling — shares short changed -17.7% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float61% OF SHARES
305.88M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)63rd PCTILE
$8.50M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
+2.76%
LPL rose +2.76% since the last close alongside 3 of 3 peers (median 2.44%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
Matched · Sep 25, 2026
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
051 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.21, 41% annual volatility, a -52% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−10.8%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−20.7%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.5×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.5×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-51.6%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
2.21
Moves about 2.2× the market over the past year.
3-year beta 1.15
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
41%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure51
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
What votes againstNightly
HighEarningslatest EPS missed by 191%4 quarters · -3
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as unknown, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
18.6%1.3× its cohort · $1–$5 names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this $1–$5 names segment: 14.8%. This name reads 1.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 5.1% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -52%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 41% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.21 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 38 days.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record1 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
12 logged
12 calls logged on this name, 1 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
1 resolved · 11 open
Calls on LPLTHIS NAME
12
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 1.
0610-K disclosed linksCONSUMER ELECTRONICS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-50.0% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
AAPLCustomer$341.07+1.53%
SONYPeer$23.55+2.44%
SNEJFPeer$23.75+8.55%
TCLHFPeer$2.000.00%
FXCNFPeer$3.000.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, LPL moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Higher rates for longer hit tech hardest, because so much of its value is profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.6% · A week later -0.7% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 16 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, LPL moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 2 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -0.8% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, LPL moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, LPL moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, LPL moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 78 of 171 report days
Across the last 171 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, LPL moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due tomorrow.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 26 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, LPL moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, LPL moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
AAPL · Customercustomer+1.53%Rumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.