Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) — Aluminum Production. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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KALUpeers & supply-chain relationships

KALU fair-value estimate

KALU earnings history

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 39.8K · 3-mo avg 272.5K

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)

KALUKaiser Aluminum Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
+7net
4 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 9 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 11/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$154.30
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 1.5% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$163–166
center $164.34 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$13.66
9.0% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.83×
52-week range$73.08 – $199.89
Below high since 2015-22.4% · $199.89 high
Risk / reward0.74 : 1
Plan stop$140.76
Max pain$160.00 options cluster
RSI 1444.2 fires under 35 · fires near $137.24
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple13.6× fwd · 11.7× trailing
P/E vs its own past4th pctile · 24.9× median
Free cash flow yield-1.0% · burning cash

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 44% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
44.2
fires under 35 · fires near $137.24
vs 50-day
$163.95
below the line
Bollinger
$146.61
no lower pierce · fires near $145.28
VWAP 20
$158.20
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$154.30
below the model level
Put wall
$150.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
+0.32
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.83×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
5.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$6.77
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-21
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
2.03% yld
no ex-date on file