Century Aluminum Company (CENX) — Aluminum Production. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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CENXpeers & supply-chain relationships

CENX fair-value estimate

CENX earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.26M · 3-mo avg 1.99M

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

CENXCentury Aluminum Companyloading…
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QTick signal
+4net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 12/100 · Nov 6
$32.94
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$37–38
near a round-number price, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $37.58 · Nov 6
±$2.98
±8.9% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
Trading volume45% above normal1.45× its 20-day average
Past year's range$25.40 – $70.43lowest to highest price
From its peak52.5% belowpeak $70.43, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.92 to 1$0.92 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$29.00the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$35.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)46.0fires under 35 · fires near $30.74
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit2.9× next year3.9× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 16%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 11.0×
Cash it generates2.6%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 11.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 55% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
46.0
fires under 35 · fires near $30.74
vs 50-day
✓
$37.87
below the line
Bollinger
●
$30.98
no lower pierce · fires near $30.52
VWAP 20
●
$33.39
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $33.39
Entry level
●
$32.94
level below · fires near $33.25
Put wall
✓
$70.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-06
MACD
Context✓
+0.16
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.45×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
13.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.97
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
reported last session · reaction session open
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file