Alcoa Corporation (AA) — Aluminum Production. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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AApeers & supply-chain relationships

AA fair-value estimate

AA earnings history

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 1:10 PM ETVol 1.91M · 3-mo avg 5.27M

Alcoa Corporation (AA)

AAAlcoa Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
-4net
1 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 2 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyPCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 45/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$46.74
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 4.4% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$48.02
center $48.02 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.17
7.1% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.23× the norm · 82% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (0/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.71×
52-week range$30.81 – $84.38
Below high since 2016-53.6% · $101.12 high
Risk / reward0.34 : 1
Plan stop$43.00
Max pain$47.00 options cluster
RSI 1441.9 fires under 35 · fires near $40.84
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple8.3× fwd · 9.3× trailing
P/E vs its own past29th pctile · 12.8× median
Free cash flow yield4.8% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 4.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 61% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Bearish tape — sell
RSI 14
41.9
fires under 35 · fires near $40.84
vs 50-day
$48.35
below the line
Bollinger
$46.13
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
$49.83
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$46.74
below the model level
Put wall
$45.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
-0.59
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.71×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.87
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-15
in 19 sessions
Next dividend
0.89% yld
no ex-date on file