Alcoa Corporation (AA) — Aluminum Production. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 5.20M · 3-mo avg 4.65M

Alcoa Corporation (AA)

AAAlcoa Corporationloading…
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QTick signal
-3net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 7/100 · Nov 6
$39.34
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$42.12
near the top of its usual range, a heavy call-option level and a round-number price · midpoint $42.12 · Nov 6
±$3.04
±7.7% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
Trading volume6% below normal0.94× its 20-day average
Past year's range$35.12 – $84.38lowest to highest price
From its peak60.9% belowpeak $101.12, highest since 2016
Gain vs. risk0.83 to 1$0.83 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$36.43the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$41.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)44.0fires under 35 · fires near $37.47
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit7.6× next year6.9× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 1%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 12.2×
Cash it generates5.4%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 46% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
44.0
fires under 35 · fires near $37.47
vs 50-day
✓
$43.46
below the line
Bollinger
●
$37.87
no lower pierce · fires near $37.49
VWAP 20
✓
$40.24
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$39.34
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$35.00
2026-11-06 expiry · chain of 2026-11-03
MACD
Context✓
+0.20
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.94×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.46
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-21
in 50 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
1.01% yld
no ex-date on file