Deep dive · NasdaqGS: INDV
Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — INDV trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $37.23 · -3.8%
200-day $35.72 · +0.3%
200-day $35.72 · +0.3%
Earnings
In 40 days
5 Nov 2026
beat 7–8 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 79% · n=35,343
cohort P(beat) 79% · n=35,343
Valuation
7.3× forward
15th of its own five-year range
5yr median 27×
FCF yield -2.15%
FCF yield -2.15%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.46 · vol 22% ann.
worst drawdown -21%
worst drawdown -21%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does286 chars
Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of buprenorphine-based prescription drugs for the treatment of opioid dependence and related disorders in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and internationally.
NasdaqGS · USDSpecialty & Generic Pharma
$35.82-0.18 · -0.50%CLOSED · vol 1.10M
52-week range↑ 59% off low · ↓ 16.3% off high
$22.56now $35.82$42.81
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 3/9CRITICAL
Piotroski F-score 3 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 26, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.71×healthy >2
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$156.00M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
8th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
0.21%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.26%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
2.1%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowFLAT
67%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapOVERHANG
2.40%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE F
38 / 100
2 critical · 1 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.23Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCRITICALM -1.43M-score elevated · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/9Piotroski F-score 3 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 1 watch and 2 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026GOOD · 69/100
Business quality
17% net margin, -212% return on equity, +4% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
69 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
16.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
80.1%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
21.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-212.1%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
23rd pctile
The balance sheet grew -9% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+1.5%
3 months-13.2%
6 months+23.6%
Year to date+0.3%
1 year+57.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+4.3%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+56.8%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 29%
29 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 3, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
79%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
8 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 1 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias1.30× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs low for this name — it routinely clears the bar
Next reportIN 40 DAYS
5 Nov 2026
Reports bmo · consensus EPS $1.12 · revenue 329.4 M
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.14 over 40 bars
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0315TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $35.82, 7.3× forward earnings, RSI 50.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed2 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $37.23 · 200-day $35.72. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 0.50% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
50
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.6%
$0.92
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.31
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position83% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$34.97
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$34.16
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
5 Nov 2026 · in 40 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 7 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.77× segment rate · n=11,137
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 61% of cases (n=11,137).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$35 – $363 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $35.76, Sma 200 at $35.72, S1 at $35.62.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
5 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
2.70pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-1.25
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months7.3×5yr median 27×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported12.8×15th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.12
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit3.5×5yr median 2.5×
Price / bookBook value is negative — liabilities exceed assets — so there is no asset base for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay14.9×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-2.15%
2 of the 6 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1 + sma 200
$35.64In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$37.20$37–$37
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$33.81risk $1.83/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.85:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+3.9%
short-term trend line · $37.23
To the 200-day
-0.3%
primary trend line · $35.72
To the composer's target
+3.9%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $37.20
To the composer's stop
-5.6%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $33.81
To the 52-week high
+19.5%
highest print of the past year · $42.81
To the 52-week low
-37.0%
lowest print of the past year · $22.56
A typical day (ATR)
$34.90 – $36.74
±$0.92 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $35.64 · stop $33.81 · target $37.20, a 0.85:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 99%, short interest is 10.15% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 25%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (3/9)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
99.1%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
1.8%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
10.15%
Rising — shares short changed +6.9% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float90% OF SHARES
110.12M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)84th PCTILE
$76.13M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-0.50%
INDV fell −0.50% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.46, 22% annual volatility, a -21% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−6.7%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−23.4%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.8×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.8×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-21.4%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.46
The market explains about 2.6% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
22%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure15
Overheat11
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (3/9)TTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.9%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.9% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.3%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 38.6% · tail cap 2.9% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.9% is the number (n=70,004). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.9% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 8.3 quarters of cash at current burn ($195M cash against $94M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 16.3% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
MedPost-earnings driftMove already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
HighRestatement history2 restatements in 2 years. The flagged-company base rate is 6.2× the unflagged one.Integrity
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 40 days.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.9% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
29 logged
29 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on INDVTHIS NAME
29
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksSPECIALTY & GENERIC PHARMA
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-31.4% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
JHPCYPeer$11.500.00%
GDERFPeer$203.60-0.91%
TAKPeer$18.86+1.45%
GALDYPeer$39.45+0.31%
TKPHFPeer$37.000.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 19, 2026
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 74 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, INDV moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later -1.0% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, INDV moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on rates.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later -1.1% · Two weeks later -2.6% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, INDV moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 2.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
On the day +0.3% · A week later +3.6% · Two weeks later +5.6% · Rose on 24 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, INDV moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 5.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Healthcare does not track the business cycle.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +4.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, INDV moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 4.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationLittle effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later -1.0% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, INDV moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later +3.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, INDV moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 3.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +4.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, INDV moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 4.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableThe supply-momentum read covered this name but produced no priced customers, so there is nothing to weight.
Connections3 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
ALKS · Competitorcompetitor+0.15%Rumored · manual
AQST · Suppliersupplier-2.90%Confirmed · 10Q
TMO · Suppliersupplier-0.50%Rumored · manual
1 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.