Deep dive · NasdaqGS: IBOC
International Bancshares Corporation stock analysis
Everything behind the call on International Bancshares Corporation. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean-0.38%
FrankfurtIB4-0.77%⏱MéxicoIBOC*0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 2 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
Across 1 covering firms
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $72.46 · -3.5%
200-day $70.85 · -1.3%
200-day $70.85 · -1.3%
Earnings
In 40 days
5 Nov 2026
beat 3–4 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
Dividend
2.09%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.40 · vol 12% ann.
worst drawdown -10%
worst drawdown -10%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does179 chars
International Bancshares Corporation, a multibank financial holding company, engages in the provision of commercial and retail banking services in Texas and the State of Oklahoma.
NasdaqGS · USDRegional Banks
$69.94+0.55 · +0.79%CLOSED · vol 344.9K
52-week range↑ 11% off low · ↓ 10.9% off high
$63.20now $69.94$78.46
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 4/7WATCH
Piotroski F-score 4 of 7. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 26, 2026
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
40th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
0.07%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.10%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.14%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
83 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.04long-term debt 0.04× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 4/7Piotroski F-score 4 of 7 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026FAIR · 45/100
Business quality
49% net margin, 13% return on equity, +1% revenue growth.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
45 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
49.0%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
12.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
Revenue (TTM)+1% YoY
$852.41M
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-0.9%
3 months-8.1%
6 months+3.8%
Year to date+4.6%
1 year+1.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+1.0%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
+0.8%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+4.1%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 37%
37 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 6, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
3 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 2 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.86× COHORT
Persistent
misses more often than it beats, by small margins
Next reportIN 40 DAYS
5 Nov 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $1.58 · revenue 0.00
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
2.09%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.08 over 40 bars
Doji
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%127,238
21d50%0.0%59,927
63d50%-0.1%19,121
open≈close — indecision
Bullish harami · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%130,421
21d48%-0.2%61,471
63d49%-0.2%19,639
small body inside prior bearish
Harami cross
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%234,204
21d47%0.0%109,893
63d47%-0.2%34,646
doji inside prior body
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%494,581
21d50%0.0%232,288
63d51%+0.2%73,891
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
03
Price & timing
Price $69.94, RSI 42.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $72.46 · 200-day $70.85. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.79% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
42
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±1.5%
$1.05
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.04
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position29% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$70.60
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$69.02
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
5 Nov 2026 · in 40 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 12 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=21,704
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.59× segment rate · n=2,119
Historically, bank names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 33% of cases (n=2,119).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.9σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$69 – $703 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $69.87, Pivot low at $69.80, Pivot low at $69.58.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
16 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,704) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
4.39pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported10.5×60th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.04
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit5.2×5yr median 4.8×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.3×
0 of the 4 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low
$69.59Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetBb upper + sma 50 + vwap 50
$72.33$72–$73
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$67.48risk $2.11/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.30:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+3.6%
short-term trend line · $72.46
To the 200-day
+1.3%
primary trend line · $70.85
To the composer's target
+3.4%
Bb upper + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $72.33
To the composer's stop
-3.5%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $67.48
To the 52-week high
+12.2%
highest print of the past year · $78.46
To the 52-week low
-9.6%
lowest print of the past year · $63.20
A typical day (ATR)
$68.89 – $70.99
±$1.05 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $69.59 · stop $67.48 · target $72.33, a 1.30:1 ratio.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 26, 2026
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-11-20 · Chain · Sep 26, 2026
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-11-20CallsPuts
0
$90.00
00
$50.00
0
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$78.46+13.1%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↓ 50-day average$72.46+4.5%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 73%, short interest is 3.73% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-1BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by 4%
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (73/100)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street1 covering firms
Consensus rating1 ANALYSTS
Buy
100% buy · 0% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 1 covering firms.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$6.75
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
73.0%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
13.1%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
3.73%
Rising — shares short changed +14.8% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float90% OF SHARES
56.16M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)72nd PCTILE
$23.09M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+0.79%
IBOC rose +0.79% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Is International Bancshares (IBOC) A Bargain Following Its Recent Pullback? - simplywall.st” (simplywall.st).
News tone · 7-day—
73 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 46 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriIs International Bancshares (IBOC) A Bargain Following Its Recent Pullback? - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
ThuInternational Bancshares Corpor (IBOC) Stock Forecasts - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
WedInternational Bancshares Corporation (IBOC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
MonBehavioral Patterns of IBOC and Institutional Flows - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
MonInternational Bancshares Corporation stock holds steady as investors watch recent earnings - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Sep 19International Bancshares Corporation stock holds steady as valuation stays below peers - AD HOC NEWSAD HOC NEWSnot scored
Sep 141990 Mongoose IBOC Team (19" frame) For Sale - PinkbikePinkbikenot scored
Sep 11How (IBOC) Movements Inform Risk Allocation Models - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.40, 12% annual volatility, a -10% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−2.6%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−4.4%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.3×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-10.3%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.40
The market explains about 5.5% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
12%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure41
Buying pressure5
Overheat3
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by 4%4 quarters · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company typeRouted as: Bank
Signal
Routed as Bank.
Failure modes are routed by company type, and the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are the validated ones. This name routes as Bank, so the 3 checks above are that cohort's, not a generic list.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 44.2% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.2% is the number (n=19,953). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 40 days.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
24 logged
24 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on IBOCTHIS NAME
24
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksREGIONAL BANKS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+22.1% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
MFGPeer$11.07+4.83%
HDBPeer$23.01+0.79%
MZHOFPeer$57.27+8.06%
IBNPeer$27.92+0.14%
USBPeer$59.33+1.59%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 19, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
More defaults and less borrowing.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 92 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, IBOC moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSmaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, IBOC moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
More mortgages get written.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.2% · Rose on 13 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, IBOC moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 0.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Businesses borrow more when they are growing.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, IBOC moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedSmaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, IBOC moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Smaller banks pay more on deposits right away but earn more on loans only slowly.
Typical for the Regional Banks industry
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, IBOC moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
More card swipes and consumer borrowing when spending is strong.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +0.4% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, IBOC moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Usually helps when consumers feel better than expectedConfident consumers borrow more.
Typical for the Financial Services sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 25 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jun 26, 2023, IBOC moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
FI · Suppliersuppliernot pricedRumored · manual
COLB · Competitorcompetitor+1.58%Rumored · manual
0 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
What it depends on
FISuppliersupplier
Named competitors
COLBCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.