Everything behind the call on Hesai Group. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — HSAI trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $17.12 · -3.5% 200-day $21.06 · -21.5%
Earnings
In 52 days
10 Nov 2026
beat 5–6 of the last 8 cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
Valuation
17.9× forward
6th of its own five-year range
5yr median 55× FCF yield -8.73%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 2.88 · vol 66% ann. worst drawdown -51%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does225 chars
Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 5/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 19, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills3.73×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.11
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$664.01M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
83rd pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
3.8%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
SBC / operating cash flowRISING
685%
How much of the cash the business generates is being handed to employees as stock. The higher it runs, the more of a buyback is just offsetting it.
Diluted vs basic share gapOVERHANG
5.24%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
40 / 100
2 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
1 of 5 checks clear
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 1.37Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 2 watch and 2 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 19, 2026GOOD · 67/100
Business quality
14% net margin, 5% return on equity, +46% revenue growth, and capital earning 2% against a 13% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
67 / 100GOOD
Profitability · net margin 14%
Growth · revenue +46% YoY
Balance strength · debt/equity 0.11
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 19, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
14.4%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
41.8%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
4.1%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
4.9%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-10.8pp
Earns 2% on invested capital that costs about 13%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersWATCH
89th pctile
The balance sheet grew +96% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
As of · Sep 13, 2026
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
-4.8%
3 months
+0.1%
6 months
-30.5%
Year to date
-29.8%
1 year
-41.2%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+45.8%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-38.3%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 49%
49 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
cohort n=45,184 · this name's own n=8 · since 2000
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
n=8 measured prints
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
67%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
n=6 beats — a conditional rate over its own denominator, not a share of all prints
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
40%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
n=5 misses
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±10.0%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
n=11 prints · p90 ±44.4% · worst 50.4% (2025-03-10)
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $17.12 · 200-day $21.06. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 2.34% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$2.58B
Day range$16.40 – $16.97
Above 52-week low+16%
Realized volatility66% ann.
Worst drawdown-50.9%
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
43
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.8%
$0.79
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.16
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position22% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$17.54
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$17.04
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
10 Nov 2026 · in 52 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 20 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 6 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.23× segment rate · n=5,845
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 82% of cases (n=5,845).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$15 – $163 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $16.29, Pivot low at $15.91, Pivot low at $15.70.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
25 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-2.26pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$4.25
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months17.9×5yr median 55×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported33.7×6th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.07
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.9×5yr median 7.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.3×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay3.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-8.73%
2 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 18, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$16.44In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50
$17.04$17–$17
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$14.86risk $1.58/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.38:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+3.6%
short-term trend line · $17.12
To the 200-day
+27.5%
primary trend line · $21.06
To the composer's target
+3.1%
Daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 18, 2026 · $17.04
To the composer's stop
-10.0%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 18, 2026 · $14.86
To the 52-week high
+86.7%
highest print of the past year · $30.85
To the 52-week low
-13.5%
lowest print of the past year · $14.29
A typical day (ATR)
$15.73 – $17.31
±$0.79 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $16.44 · stop $14.86 · target $17.04, a 0.38:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 33%, short interest is 6.49% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
Earnings +2
Quality / value -2
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 48%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
32.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
4.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
6.49%
Falling — shares short changed -15.5% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float81% OF SHARES
125.86M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)73rd PCTILE
$28.12M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
-2.34%
HSAI fell −2.34% since the last close alongside 3 of 3 peers (median 2.58%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
Matched · Sep 18, 2026
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0510 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.88, 66% annual volatility, a -51% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−12.1%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−21.6%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.3×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-50.9%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
2.88
Moves about 2.9× the market over the past year.
3-year beta 1.80
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
66%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure55
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.3%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.3% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
10.7%1.3× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 1.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 37.0% · tail cap 2.3% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 2.3% is the number (n=19,993). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
MedLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 11.3% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — above the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 29.5 quarters of cash at current burn ($1.7B cash against $225M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 16.3% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -51%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 66% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.88 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.3% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
26 logged
26 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
10 resolved · 16 open
Calls on HSAITHIS NAME
26
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksAUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 2 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+6.2% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
ORLYPeer$84.71-0.21%
AZOPeer$2,855.31+0.39%
MGAPeer$63.15-2.58%
GPCPeer$128.08-2.14%
AURPeer$6.31-2.77%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Historical retrospective. Context, not a forecast.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 6 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 19, 2026
Retail salesUsually helps when shoppers spend more than expected
This report is the sector's own sales figure, printed monthly.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -2.4% · Two weeks later +1.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Retail sales reports since Jun 15, 2023, HSAI moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Fewer paychecks means less spending at stores, restaurants and dealers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +2.0% · Rose on 76 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, HSAI moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 2.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +2.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, HSAI moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 2.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Costlier car loans, mortgages and credit cards mean less consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -1.4% · A week later +1.8% · Two weeks later +1.2% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, HSAI moved -1.4% on average on the day and was 1.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Homebuilders and home-improvement chains sit in this sector.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later +4.1% · Two weeks later +4.3% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, HSAI moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 4.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A stronger economy means more consumer spending.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -2.4% · Two weeks later +1.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, HSAI moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 1.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 11 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +2.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, HSAI moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 2.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Higher prices squeeze household budgets and higher rates make borrowing dearer; both are bad for stores, restaurants and carmakers.
Typical for the Consumer Cyclical sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -1.7% · Two weeks later +2.4% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, HSAI moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 2.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.