Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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GWRE fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.01M · 3-mo avg 1.40M

Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE)

GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
4 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 41/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$144.83
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$158–162
center $160.00 · basis · call wall + round · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$10.76
7.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 11% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 11% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.60×
52-week range$102.30 – $255.89
Below high since 2015-46.6% · $272.60 high
Risk / reward0.98 : 1
Plan stop$130.79
Max pain$155.00 options cluster
RSI 1440.1 fires under 35 · fires near $134.76
Forensic flags4 review
Earnings multiple93.8× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past31st pctile · 176.4× median
Free cash flow yield2.3% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 3.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 70% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
40.1
fires under 35 · fires near $134.76
vs 50-day
✓
$164.40
below the line
Bollinger
●
$114.14
no lower pierce · fires near $106.76
VWAP 20
✓
$162.26
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$144.83
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$120.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-24
MACD
Context●
-1.62
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.60×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
4.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$7.02
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-12-03
in 49 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file