Everything behind the call on CGI Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.09%
Tel AvivGIB/A0.00%⏱FrankfurtCJ5A+1.26%⏱TaiwanGIB/A0.00%⏱London0A18-0.79%⏱MéxicoGIBAN0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 5 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $71.81 · -5.6% 200-day $74.27 · -8.8%
Earnings
In 46 days
11 Nov 2026
beat 5–6 of the last 8 cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,258
Valuation
9.7× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 14.00%
Dividend
0.72%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
3 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 0.27 · vol 29% ann. worst drawdown -35%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Distance to default (Merton)
6.1σCOMFORTABLE
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.18%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 3 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026FAIR · 46/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 16% return on equity, +8% revenue growth, and capital earning 15% against a 6% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
46 / 100FAIR
Profitability · net margin 10%
Growth · revenue +8% YoY
Balance strength · debt/equity 0.42
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
10.4%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
16.4%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
16.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
16.1%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
9.4pp
Earns 15% on invested capital that costs about 6%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
10.8%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
-9.0%
3 months
+6.3%
6 months
-4.6%
Year to date
-25.6%
1 year
-23.3%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+8.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
+0.6%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-19.7%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 29%
71 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
cohort n=45,258 · this name's own n=8 · since 2000
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
n=8 measured prints
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
50%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
n=22 beats — a conditional rate over its own denominator, not a share of all prints
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±2.6%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
n=25 prints · p90 ±4.9% · worst 10.8% (2026-04-29)
Reaction: beat vs missSYMMETRIC
+0.2% / +1.3%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
n=22 beats · n=3 misses — each average over its own denominator
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.72%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $71.81 · 200-day $74.27. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 0.54% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$14.03B
Day range$67.40 – $68.16
Above 52-week low+14%
Realized volatility29% ann.
Worst drawdown-35.1%
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
37
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.5%
$1.66
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.43
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position13% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$71.18
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$70.79
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
11 Nov 2026 · in 46 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 31 Jul; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.02× segment rate · n=7,904
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 67% of cases (n=7,904).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.5σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$63 – $672 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $67.39, Pivot low at $64.13.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
38 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
3.17pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-15.76
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months9.7×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported11.9×
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth1.39
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.9×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.4×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay6.1×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off8.9×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value14.00%
1 of the 8 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$67.43In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetSma 50 + vwap 50
$71.77$71–$72
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$62.88risk $4.55/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.95:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+6.0%
short-term trend line · $71.81
To the 200-day
+9.6%
primary trend line · $74.27
To the composer's target
+5.9%
Sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $71.77
To the composer's stop
-7.2%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 25, 2026 · $62.88
To the 52-week high
+40.5%
highest print of the past year · $95.20
To the 52-week low
-12.0%
lowest print of the past year · $59.63
A typical day (ATR)
$66.11 – $69.43
±$1.66 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $67.43 · stop $62.88 · target $71.77, a 0.95:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 76%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
Earnings +1
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+1
4 of the prior 4 quarters beat
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
75.6%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.4%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float91% OF SHARES
168.00M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)75th PCTILE
$32.29M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET -16
+31 / −47
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-0.54%
GIB fell −0.54% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Matched · Sep 25, 2026
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.27, 29% annual volatility, a -35% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−7.3%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−15.7%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.7×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.7×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-35.1%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.27
The market explains about 1.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
3-year beta 0.56
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
29%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure63
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.3%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.3% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
3.7%0.5× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.5× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 44.3% · tail cap 3.3% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.4% is the number (n=25,762). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.8% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -35%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 29% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.72% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
27 logged
27 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
11 resolved · 16 open
Calls on GIBTHIS NAME
27
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksIT SERVICES & CONSULTING
The wider context
5 mapped peers.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-17.8% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
8056.TPeer$4,796.00+0.06%
IBMPeer$225.51-0.68%
ACNPeer$176.11-0.73%
INFYPeer$10.500.00%
WITPeer$1.65+0.61%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, GIB moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Higher rates for longer hit tech hardest, because so much of its value is profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, GIB moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, GIB moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, GIB moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, GIB moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -0.2% · Two weeks later -0.4% · Rose on 92 of 171 report days
Across the last 171 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, GIB moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.4% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -0.5% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, GIB moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.5% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later -0.7% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, GIB moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.7% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections
Data unavailableNo competitor, partner, supplier or customer relationship is on file for this name yet.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.