Elastic N.V. (ESTC) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:31 PM ETVol 550.9K · 3-mo avg 2.34M

Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

ESTCElastic N.V.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 41/100 · Nov 9
$89.81
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9 · price is already 5.2% below it
$91–94
near a resistance level, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $92.72 · Nov 9
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
96% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume14% below normal0.86× its 20-day average
Past year's range$42.05 – $108.00lowest to highest price
From its peak51.7% belowpeak $186.82, highest since 2018
Gain vs. risk0.30 to 1$0.30 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$80.03the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)45.4fires under 35 · fires near $71.37
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit21.5× next year24.3× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 7%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 178.3×

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 56% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
45.4
fires under 35 · fires near $71.37
vs 50-day
✓
$92.65
below the line
Bollinger
●
$83.00
no lower pierce · fires near $82.37
VWAP 20
✓
$95.72
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$89.81
below the model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-1.16
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.86×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.89
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-19
in 7 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file