Elastic N.V. (ESTC) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ESTCpeers & supply-chain relationships

ESTC fair-value estimate

ESTC earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:56 PM ETVol 1.76M · 3-mo avg 2.28M

Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

ESTCElastic N.V.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 4/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$87.68
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$107–109
center $108.00 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.21× the norm · 96% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.64×
52-week range$42.05 – $108.00
Below high since 2018-52.8% · $186.82 high
Risk / reward2.30 : 1
Plan stop$79.48
Max pain—
RSI 1453.4 fires under 35 · fires near $70.75
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple22.4× fwd · 25.4× trailing
P/E vs its own past2nd pctile · 178.3× median
Price / booknot on file

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 3.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 58% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
53.4
fires under 35 · fires near $70.75
vs 50-day
●
$79.57
above the line · fires near $80.15
Bollinger
●
$80.70
no lower pierce · fires near $79.16
VWAP 20
✓
$92.27
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$87.68
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.39
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.64×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
2.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.57
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-19
in 39 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file