Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) — Specialty & Generic Pharma. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ELAN fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 6.41M · 3-mo avg 5.92M

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN)

ELANElanco Animal Health Incorporatedloading…
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QTick signal
+5net
4 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 68/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$22.20
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$23.92
center $23.92 · basis · round + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.53
6.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 7% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 7% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.18×
52-week range$18.48 – $27.98
Below high since 2018-43.8% · $39.69 high
Risk / reward1.09 : 1
Plan stop$20.83
Max pain$23.00 options cluster
RSI 1437.8 fires under 35 · fires near $21.95
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple17.6× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield2.5% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 0.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 77% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
37.8
fires under 35 · fires near $21.95
vs 50-day
✓
$24.06
below the line
Bollinger
●
$21.78
no lower pierce · fires near $21.63
VWAP 20
✓
$23.26
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$22.20
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$20.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-0.13
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.18×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
6.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.68
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-06
in 31 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file