Everything behind the call on DHT Holdings, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — DHT trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $18.79 · +23.8% 200-day $15.71 · +48.1%
Earnings
In 40 days
28 Oct 2026
beat 5–6 of the last 8 cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
Valuation
10.8× forward
2nd of its own five-year range
5yr median 11× FCF yield -0.89%
Dividend
20.97%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
beta 0.32 · vol 35% ann. worst drawdown -17%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does132 chars
DHT Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates crude oil tankers primarily in Monaco, Singapore, Norway, and India.
Altman-Z of 4.9 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
4.86SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
9.4σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Structural snapshot · Sep 18, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Method · empirical EDF bucket · pooled cohort · bucket evidence not reproducible from the current calibration artifact — the number serves, the proof abstains
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 6/9
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.80×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.38
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$350.70M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
20th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
80 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
3 of 5 checks clear
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 4.15Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.74M-score in range · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH2 flags2 filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026GOOD · 71/100
Business quality
42% net margin, 19% return on equity, -13% revenue growth, and capital earning 12% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
71 / 100GOOD
Profitability · net margin 42%
Growth · revenue -13% YoY
Balance strength · debt/equity 0.38
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
42.4%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
38.3%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
34.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
18.6%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
5.2pp
Earns 12% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
81.9%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
+14.2%
3 months
+20.8%
6 months
+27.8%
Year to date
+94.4%
1 year
+76.2%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-12.8%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+17.0%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+72.2%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 8%
92 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
cohort n=45,184 · this name's own n=8 · since 2000
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
n=8 measured prints
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
23%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
n=13 beats — a conditional rate over its own denominator, not a share of all prints
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
25%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
n=8 misses
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±2.2%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
n=22 prints · p90 ±6.5% · worst 10.0% (2022-05-08)
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
+2.0% / -2.7%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
n=13 beats · n=8 misses — each average over its own denominator
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
20.97%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
<1x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $18.79 · 200-day $15.71. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 1.97% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$3.74B
Day range$22.88 – $23.48
Above 52-week low+115%
Realized volatility35% ann.
Worst drawdown-17.2%
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERBOUGHT
80
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.0%
$0.69
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.19
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position100% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$20.81
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$21.39
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
28 Oct 2026 · in 40 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 12 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.07× segment rate · n=13,086
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=13,086).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$22 – $231 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $22.62.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
7.68pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-2.18
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months10.8×5yr median 11×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported7.9×2nd of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.04
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit7.5×5yr median 3.3×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets3.3×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay12.3×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-0.89%
2 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$22.71Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$23.46$23–$24
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$21.33risk $1.38/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.55:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-19.2%
short-term trend line · $18.79
To the 200-day
-32.5%
primary trend line · $15.71
To the composer's target
+0.8%
52-week high · set Sep 17, 2026 · $23.46
To the composer's stop
-8.4%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $21.33
To the 52-week high
+0.9%
highest print of the past year · $23.48
To the 52-week low
-53.5%
lowest print of the past year · $10.83
A typical day (ATR)
$22.58 – $23.96
±$0.69 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $22.71 · stop $21.33 · target $23.46, a 0.55:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 80%, short interest is 9.11% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+3LEANING · 30d
Earnings +3
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 7%
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
80.3%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
9.9%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
9.11%
Rising — shares short changed +25.0% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float90% OF SHARES
144.36M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)84th PCTILE
$79.61M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayPEER COMOVE
+1.97%
DHT rose +1.97% since the last close alongside 2 of 2 peers (median 1.42%) — a sector/market move, not company-specific.
Matched · Sep 18, 2026
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0510 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.32, 35% annual volatility, a -17% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−6.2%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−9.7%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.1×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-17.2%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.32
The market explains about 1.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
3-year beta 0.39
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
35%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure46
Overheat54
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.6%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.6% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 28.1% · tail cap 2.6% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.6% is the number (n=120,445). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 5.6% against a 10.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 9.5 quarters of cash at current burn ($79M cash against $33M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 16.3% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 40 days.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.6% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
22 logged
22 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
10 resolved · 12 open
Calls on DHTTHIS NAME
22
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksOIL & GAS MIDSTREAM
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+38.7% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
ENBPeer$48.73-0.04%
WMBPeer$72.05+0.33%
EPDPeer$38.89+1.14%
KMIPeer$31.84+1.69%
TRPPeer$61.54-0.18%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Historical retrospective. Context, not a forecast.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Less commuting, shipping and factory activity means less fuel demand.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 94 of 169 report days
Across the last 169 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, DHT moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Oil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +1.6% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, DHT moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
A busier economy burns more fuel.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, DHT moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 11 days.
PCE inflationUsually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Oil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.7% · Two weeks later +1.6% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, DHT moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Oil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.7% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 28 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DHT moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Oil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.8% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 27 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DHT moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Oil and gas prices tend to rise with inflation, so energy companies earn more.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.8% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 27 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, DHT moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 10 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expected
More people working means more commuting, shipping and power use.
Typical for the Energy sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +2.9% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, DHT moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 2.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.