BP p.l.c. (BP) — Integrated Oil & Gas. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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BP fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 17, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 7.69M · 3-mo avg 9.32M

BP p.l.c. (BP)

BPBP p.l.c.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressOKPCE inflation days · ~19% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$45.19
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$47.22
center $47.22 · basis · bb upper + high 52w + round · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.02× the norm · 68% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.80×
52-week range$32.72 – $48.27
Below high since 2015-7.8% · $49.26 high
Risk / reward0.59 : 1
Plan stop$42.35
Max pain
RSI 1457.3 fires under 35 · fires near $39.29
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple9.3× fwd · 21.7× trailing
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield9.6% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 49% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
57.3
fires under 35 · fires near $39.29
vs 50-day
$42.96
above the line · fires near $43.34
Bollinger
$41.66
no lower pierce · fires near $41.13
VWAP 20
$44.36
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $44.34
Entry level
$45.19
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
Context
+0.17
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.80×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
0.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.06
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-30
in 31 sessions
Next dividend
4.45% yld
no ex-date on file