Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) — Application Software. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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CVLT fair-value estimate

CVLT earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 803.5K · 3-mo avg 608.5K

Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)

CVLTCommvault Systems, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$157.57
near a recent low, a support level and a heavy put-option level · Nov 6
$171–176
near the top of its usual range, the 52-week high and a round-number price · midpoint $173.43 · Nov 6
±$12.46
±7.9% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
85% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.1× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume7% above normal1.07× its 20-day average
Past year's range$71.75 – $174.25lowest to highest price
From its peak21.1% belowpeak $200.68, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.84 to 1$0.84 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$140.45the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$165.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)49.9fires under 35 · fires near $135.70
Accounting warning signs4worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit82.1× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 47%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 85.1×
Cash it generates3.6%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 43% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
49.9
fires under 35 · fires near $135.70
vs 50-day
●
$150.61
above the line · fires near $151.89
Bollinger
●
$148.61
no lower pierce · fires near $146.44
VWAP 20
✓
$162.38
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$157.57
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$160.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-06
MACD
Context●
-1.46
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.07×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
9.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$8.56
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-26
in 53 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file