Deep dive · NasdaqGS: COGT
Cogent Biosciences, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Cogent Biosciences, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Trend are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at 0 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.35.
Leans up · and why
earnings, analyst moves vote up. 2 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
quality / value, insider flow, sentiment vote down. 3 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways.
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
ZurichCOGT0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 1 overseas venue listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
+73% to the average target
92% buy · 8% hold · 0% sell
median target $56
median target $56
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $36.80 · -12.2%
200-day $36.58 · -11.7%
200-day $36.58 · -11.7%
Earnings
In 37 days
3 Nov 2026 · options imply ±10.2%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,258
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,258
Valuation
-31.5× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield -4.46%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 2.45 · vol 38% ann.
worst drawdown -27%
worst drawdown -27%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does141 chars
Cogent Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on developing precision therapies for genetically defined diseases.
NasdaqGS · USDBiotechnology
$32.31+0.88 · +2.80%CLOSED · vol 2.98M
52-week range↑ 179% off low · ↓ 26.1% off high
$11.60now $32.31$43.73
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · time not on file
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jul 6, 2026SOLVENT · 1 FLAGGED
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 11.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
11.26SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 6, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
8.2σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 3/8
Piotroski F-score 3 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills14.23×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.38
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.24
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$73.22M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
96th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
62 / 100
1 critical · 1 watch · 2 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 11.26Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.35long-term debt 0.35× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/8Piotroski F-score 3 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 22/100
Business quality
-52% return on equity, and capital earning -90% against a 15% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
22 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-51.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-105.1pp
Earns -90% on invested capital that costs about 15%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-43.4%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Asset growth vs peersWATCH
93rd pctile
The balance sheet grew +186% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Revenue (TTM)TRAILING
$0
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-12.9%
3 months-16.6%
6 months-10.5%
Year to date-7.0%
1 year+143.1%
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+177.1%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 28%
28 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 10, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
71%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
88%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.0%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.00%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.29 over 40 bars
Morning star · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%-0.1%134,105
21d49%-0.1%63,238
63d49%-0.3%20,225
3-bar bottom reversal
03-31.5× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $32.31, -31.5× forward earnings, RSI 40, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $36.80 · 200-day $36.58. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 2.80% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
40
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.3%
$1.40
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.09
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position28% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$33.17
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$33.46
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
3 Nov 2026 · in 37 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,076
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.12× segment rate · n=857
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 89% of cases (n=857).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.9σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$30 – $323 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $31.34, Pivot low at $30.93, Pivot low at $30.87.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
72 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,076) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$0.45
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Trailing P/EThe company lost money over the trailing year, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets9.4×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-4.46%
2 of the 2 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 2 are marked not meaningful because the figure they divide into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$32.04In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetBb upper + sma 200 + vwap 50
$36.40$36–$37
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$29.24risk $2.80/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
1.56:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+13.9%
short-term trend line · $36.80
To the 200-day
+13.2%
primary trend line · $36.58
To the put wall
-1.0%
heaviest put open interest · $32.00
To the call wall
+23.8%
heaviest call open interest · $40.00
To the composer's target
+12.7%
Bb upper + sma 200 + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $36.40
To the composer's stop
-9.5%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $29.24
To the 52-week high
+35.3%
highest print of the past year · $43.73
To the 52-week low
-64.1%
lowest print of the past year · $11.60
Options-implied week ±10.2%
$29.02 – $35.60
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$30.91 – $33.71
±$1.40 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $32.04 · stop $29.24 · target $36.40, a 1.56:1 ratio.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 27, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-18 expiry · Chain · Sep 27, 2026
Max pain+7.6%
$37.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.15
87% calls
13% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.26
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $3.50
±10.2%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$40.00CALL1,462
$37.00CALL913
$42.00CALL511
$38.00CALL222
$43.00CALL151
$32.00PUT115
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $37.00
14
$44.00
0151
$43.00
0511
$42.00
202
$41.00
01k
$40.00
1067
$39.00
15222
$38.00
8913
$37.00
306
$36.00
2357
$35.00
10513
$34.00
7710
$33.00
410
$32.00
1153
$31.00
08
$30.00
416
$25.00
3
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$43.73+27.1%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$40.00+16.3%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$37.00+7.6%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$36.80+7.0%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$32.00-7.0%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 115%, short interest is 11.65% of float, and 9 analysts average $56.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 3 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
+1
2 price-target raises in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+3
latest EPS beat by 8%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($1,689,493 across 2 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (3/8)
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
-1
7d sentiment depressed (25/100)
Signal
2 bull / 3 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 5 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
3 of 5 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.35 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
Wall Street9 covering firms
Consensus rating9 ANALYSTS
Buy
92% buy · 8% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 9 covering firms.
Median price target+73%
$56
$45now $32$62
A $45–$62 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$-1.11
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Wedbush$55→63/100
HC Wainwright & Co.$55→54/100
Piper Sandler$55↑57/100
Guggenheim$52↑51/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
115.0%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.4%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)CROWDED
11.65%
Rising — shares short changed +4.8% over 30 days. A crowded short is fuel in both directions.
Free float94% OF SHARES
160.86M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)84th PCTILE
$73.69M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Morris Arlene · DirectorSell$1.6M—27 Aug
Morris Arlene · DirectorOption exercise$236,468—27 Aug
Morris Arlene · DirectorOption exercise$9,029—27 Aug
Morris Arlene · DirectorOption exercisenot on file—27 Aug
Morris Arlene · DirectorSell$118,663—27 Aug
Morris Arlene · DirectorOption exercisenot on file—27 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+2.80%
COGT rose +2.80% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Cogent Biosciences (COGT) Stock Trades At A Premium As FDA Accepts NDA” (Simply Wall St.).
News tone · 7-day—
25 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
SatShould FDA Filing Acceptance Require Action From Cogent Biosciences (COGT) Investors? - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
FriCogent Biosciences (COGT) Stock Trades At A Premium As FDA Accepts NDASimply Wall St.not scored
FriCogent Biosciences (COGT) Stock Trades At A Premium As FDA Accepts NDA - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
FriWhy (COGT) Price Action Is Critical for Tactical Trading - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
ThuCogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuCogent Biosciences (COGT) Looks Fully Valued Following FDA NDA AcceptanceSimply Wall St.not scored
ThuCogent Biosciences (COGT) Looks Fully Valued Following FDA NDA Acceptance - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuWill FDA’s Streamlined Bezuclastinib Review in ASM Change Cogent Biosciences’ (COGT) Narrative?Simply Wall St.not scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
1 of 1 disclosures are buys and 0 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.45, 38% annual volatility, a -27% worst drawdown.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-26.7%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
2.45
The market explains about 6.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
38%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure54
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (3/8)TTM · -2
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($1,689,493 across 2 sells) in 120d120d · -1
LowSentiment7d sentiment depressed (25/100)1–30d · -1
Signal
3 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy
Data unavailableThe eight-surface risk screen has not run for this name. It needs the nightly cross-sectional pass, which covers a name once it has enough history and liquidity to rank.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.45 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 37 days, and the chain prices ±10.2% for the week.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
20 logged
20 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on COGTTHIS NAME
20
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksBIOTECHNOLOGY
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+5.8% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
VRTXPeer$526.19+0.73%
REGNPeer$788.04-1.00%
ARGXPeer$959.49-0.28%
RVMDPeer$204.97+2.56%
ALNYPeer$255.96+2.55%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 25, 2026
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +2.8% · Rose on 78 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, COGT moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 2.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.5% · Two weeks later +3.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, COGT moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 3.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on rates.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.3% · Two weeks later +4.5% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, COGT moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 4.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +3.6% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, COGT moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 3.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Healthcare does not track the business cycle.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, COGT moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Little effect either wayHealthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +4.2% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, COGT moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 4.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Little effect either wayHealthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +1.7% · Two weeks later +4.1% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, COGT moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 4.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationLittle effect either wayPeople need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +2.5% · Two weeks later +3.5% · Rose on 17 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, COGT moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 3.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
BPMC · Competitorcompetitornot pricedRumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
BPMCCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.