Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) — $138.52 +5.46%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

CHRDpeers & supply-chain relationships

CHRD fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 998.0K · Avg 814.1K
CHRDChord Energy Corporation$138.52+5.46%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -3 — more evidence points down than up — and the balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band, 2 accounting red flags are raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-3net
2 bull / 4 bear factors · leaning
Bull 2 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$137.83
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$144–146
center $145.00 · basis · bb upper + call wall · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$9.02
6.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~85% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.1× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.23× · 998.0K vs 814.1K avg
52-week range$84.25 – $151.95
Below high since 2020-27.2% · $190.23 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.6
Plan stop$124.94
Max pain$130.00 options cluster
RSI 1458.2 fires under 35 · fires near $114.67
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$138.52
$104.75 · -24.4%-24.4%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.5% · $147.54+6.5%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
58.2
fires under 35 · fires near $114.67
vs 50-day
$128.72
above the line · fires near $129.66
Bollinger
$121.76
no lower pierce · fires near $119.73
VWAP 20
$133.08
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $133.03
Entry level
$137.83
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$105.00
OI strike below · fires near $105.38
MACD
-0.04
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.23×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
7.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.63
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
3 Nov 2026
· in 84 days
Next dividend
USD 1.30
ex-date 2026-08-20
prices 15-min delayed