CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) — Restaurants & Dining. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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CAVA fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 3.49M · 3-mo avg 3.44M

CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)

CAVACAVA Group, Inc.loading…
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after-hours · no prints

QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 20/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$53.24
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-24 · price is 3.1% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$62–63
center $62.93 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.99
7.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.20× the norm · 95% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.98×
52-week range$43.41 – $98.79
Below high since 2023-69.0% · $172.43 high
Risk / reward1.84 : 1
Plan stop$47.99
Max pain$53.00 options cluster
RSI 1433.6 washed out
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple71.2× fwd · 94.6× trailing
P/E vs its own past41st pctile · 162.8× median
Free cash flow yield0.4% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 3.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 60% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
✓
33.6
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$62.49
below the line
Bollinger
●
$45.98
no lower pierce · fires near $44.56
VWAP 20
✓
$55.92
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$53.24
below the model level
Put wall
●
$50.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-0.22
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.98×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
13.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.25
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-11-10
in 33 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file