McDonald's Corporation (MCD) — $273.23 −0.18%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

MCDpeers & supply-chain relationships

MCD fair-value estimate

Qtick
Sign in
Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 180.0K · Avg 4.63M
MCDMcDonald's Corporation$273.23-0.18%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -4 — more evidence points down than up — and the 50-day average sits below the 200-day, 2 accounting red flags are raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-4net
2 bull / 4 bear factors · leaning
Bull 2 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.1× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$272.35
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$336–339
center $337.56 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$9.07
3.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~65% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.04× · 180.0K vs 4.63M avg
52-week range$260.96 – $341.75
Below high since 2015-19.9% · $341.75 high
Risk / reward1 : 5.8
Plan stop$261.15
Max pain
RSI 1452.6 fires under 35 · fires near $251.40
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$273.23
$249.94 · -8.5%-8.5%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+3.3% · $282.30+3.3%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
52.6
fires under 35 · fires near $251.40
vs 50-day
$273.75
at the line
Bollinger
$261.16
no lower pierce · fires near $259.69
VWAP 20
$269.40
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $269.30
Entry level
$272.35
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$265.00
OI strike below · fires near $266.24
MACD
+0.73
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.04×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
1.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.60
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
5 Nov 2026
· in 85 days
Next dividend
USD 1.86
ex-date 2026-09-01
prices 15-min delayed