Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) — $104.65 −0.88%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

SBUXpeers & supply-chain relationships

SBUX fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 4.94M · Avg 7.84M
SBUXStarbucks Corporation$104.65-0.88%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

3 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+2net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 6 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
3 of 6 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.9× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$104.13
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$108–110
center $109.23 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$7.10
6.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
Low
~46% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 0.7× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.63× · 4.94M vs 7.84M avg
52-week range$77.99 – $109.23
Below high since 2015-17.1% · $126.16 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.9
Plan stop$98.22
Max pain$104.00 options cluster
RSI 1451.0 fires under 35 · fires near $97.73
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$104.65
$97.55 · -6.8%-6.8%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.8% · $111.75+6.8%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
51.0
fires under 35 · fires near $97.73
vs 50-day
$102.58
above the line · fires near $103.54
Bollinger
$102.33
no lower pierce · fires near $101.86
VWAP 20
$105.14
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$104.13
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$105.00
within 0.5% of max put OI
MACD
-0.05
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.63×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
4.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.95
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
28 Oct 2026
· in 78 days
Next dividend
USD 0.62
ex-date 2026-08-14
prices 15-min delayed