Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) — Restaurants & Dining. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 13.20M · 3-mo avg 17.02M

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionPCE inflation days · ~5% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 61/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$31.17
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$34.83
center $34.83 · basis · round + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.62
5.2% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.05×
52-week range$28.04 – $42.82
Below high since 2015-54.8% · $69.26 high
Risk / reward1.45 : 1
Plan stop$28.91
Max pain$33.50 options cluster
RSI 1430.1 washed out
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple23.9× fwd · 30.9× trailing
P/E vs its own past9th pctile · 52.0× median
Free cash flow yield3.6% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 2.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 69% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
✓
30.1
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$34.78
below the line
Bollinger
●
$30.83
no lower pierce · fires near $30.67
VWAP 20
✓
$35.16
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$31.17
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$33.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-0.57
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.05×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.13
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file