Deep dive · NYQ: AXIA
AXIA Energia stock analysis
Everything behind the call on AXIA Energia. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
1 factors lean up and 2 lean down and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at -3 over 30d, a leaning reading.
Leans up · and why
sentiment vote up.
Leans down · and why
earnings, insider flow vote down.
Global tape
No overseas listings — AXIA trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Earnings
In 38 days
4 Nov 2026
beat ≤2 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
11.0× forward
5th of its own five-year range
5yr median 12×
FCF yield 51.53%
FCF yield 51.53%
Dividend
5.19%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
worst drawdown -7%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does145 chars
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil.
NYQ · USDRenewable Utilities
$10.22-0.25 · -2.39%CLOSED · vol 21.16M
52-week range↑ 71% off low · ↓ 24.5% off high
$5.98now $10.22$13.54
Quote Aug 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-08-14
Tape 2026-08-14
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.68×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.65
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$60.85B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
41st pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
75 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 4 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.66M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.52long-term debt 0.52× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026FAIR · 44/100
Business quality
16% net margin, 6% return on equity, +3% revenue growth, and capital earning 8% against a 7% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
44 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
15.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
87.8%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
32.2%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
5.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
0.5pp
Earns 8% on invested capital that costs about 7%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
41.3%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-1.7%
3 months-14.1%
6 months-15.9%
Year to date+3.0%
1 year+14.7%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+2.7%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-100.0%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earningsAug 5, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
2 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
67%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
67%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±2.7%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
5.19%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
<1x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope -0.05 over 40 bars
Hanging man · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.2%162,356
21d48%-0.2%76,200
63d49%-0.3%24,370
long lower shadow, small body at top
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
035TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $10.22, 11.0× forward earnings, RSI 39.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
39COOL
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-08-09 → 2026-08-14
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 2.39% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.06
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Pivots (classic)R1 $10 · S1 $9
$9.47
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
DeMark countdownDOWN SETUP
2 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
4 Nov 2026 · in 38 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 7 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=45,352
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 66% of cases (n=45,352).
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
5.02pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-26.36
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months11.0×5yr median 12×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported10.0×5th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth3.01
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.6×5yr median 1.9×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets0.2×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay23.3×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off7.0×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value51.53%
2 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 3%, short interest is 0.21% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-3LEANING · 30d
1 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-3
latest EPS missed by 2%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($16,477,324 across 30 sells) in 120d
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (67/100)
Signal
1 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 3 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
2.6%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.21%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float83% OF SHARES
1.64B
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)73rd PCTILE
$26.05M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Corso Matte Ana Silvia · DirectorBuy$29,190—17 Aug
Batista de Lima Filho Pedro · DirectorSell$187,785—12 Aug
Batista de Lima Filho Pedro · DirectorBuy$59,272—12 Aug
Batista de Lima Filho Pedro · DirectorBuy$55,448—12 Aug
Batista de Lima Filho Pedro · DirectorBuy$10,516—12 Aug
Batista de Lima Filho Pedro · DirectorBuy$19,120—12 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 25, 2026NEWS
-2.39%
AXIA fell −2.39% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “AXIA Energia Clears Up to R$ 11.7 Billion for Potential Preferred Share Redemptions - TipRanks” (TipRanks).
News tone · 7-day—
71 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriAXIA Energia Clears Up to R$ 11.7 Billion for Potential Preferred Share Redemptions - TipRanksTipRanksnot scored
ThuAxia Corporation invests US$6m in centralised hub to boost retail operations - Herald.co.zwHerald.co.zwnot scored
ThuAxia to invest US$6m in Harare logistics hub for TV Sales & Home - heraldonline.co.zwheraldonline.co.zwnot scored
WedBatista De Lima Filho Pedro Acquires 91,000 Shares of AXIA Energia at $10.55 Each in Six Trades - Kalkine MediaKalkine Medianot scored
WedAxia Energia S.a. Insider Bought Shares Worth $960,050, According to a Recent SEC Filing - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
WedDirector at AXIA Energia (AXIAY) buys 91,000 shares - stocktitan.netstocktitan.netnot scored
WedMandatory redemption cuts AXIA Energia (AXIAY) director's preferred stake - stocktitan.netstocktitan.netnot scored
TueForm 4 AXIA Energia S.A. For: 22 September By Investing.com - Investing.com CanadaInvesting.com Canadanot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0510 graded calls
Risk & track record
a -7% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-7.4%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
HighEarningslatest EPS missed by 2%4 quarters · -3
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($16,477,324 across 30 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.8%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 38 days.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
24 logged
24 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on AXIATHIS NAME
24
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksRENEWABLE UTILITIES
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-59.7% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
AXIA-PPeer$10.74-1.74%
BEPPeer$28.35+0.28%
AXIA-PCPeer$10.12-2.22%
ENLTPeer$69.47+0.87%
FRVOPeer$15.18-9.16%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 24, 2026
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedUtilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 14 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, AXIA moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedUtilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 14 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, AXIA moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Utilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 21 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, AXIA moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Renewable projects are built on borrowed money; higher rates hurt.
Typical for the Renewable Utilities industry
On the day -0.3% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 15 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, AXIA moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Utilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 21 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, AXIA moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually helps when more people file for benefits than expected
Utilities trade like bonds and rise when rates fall.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 82 of 165 report days
Across the last 165 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, AXIA moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually hurts when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Utilities fall when a strong economy lifts rates.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -1.0% · Two weeks later -0.6% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, AXIA moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Utilities pay steady dividends much like bonds, so when rates rise on hot inflation investors sell them.
Typical for the Utilities sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later -0.7% · Two weeks later -0.2% · Rose on 22 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, AXIA moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
ELET · Competitorcompetitornot pricedRumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
ELETCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.