Deep dive · NGM: APGE
Apogee Therapeutics Inc stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Apogee Therapeutics Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Trend and Street are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at -5 over 30d, a leaning reading on a dispersion of 0.03, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
1 of 6 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
quality / value, analyst moves, earnings vote down. 5 of 6 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Trend against Street.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are long gamma, so their hedging absorbs moves rather than amplifying them; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −22.4%; and the binding position cap is 2.4% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tape
No overseas listings — APGE trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-07-17
Wall Street rating
Hold
0% to the average target
14% buy · 86% hold · 0% sell
mean target $135
mean target $135
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $102.38 · +31.9%
200-day $78.45 · +72.2%
200-day $78.45 · +72.2%
Earnings
tomorrow
9 Nov 2026 · options imply ±0.0%
beat 3–4 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=39,143
cohort P(beat) 53% · n=39,143
Valuation
-26.0× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield -2.28%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 1.00 · vol 157% ann.
worst drawdown -25%
worst drawdown -25%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NGM · USDBiotechnology
$135.07CLOSED · vol 0
52-week range↑ 282% off low · ↓ 0.0% off high
$35.39now $135.07$135.09
Quote Sep 2, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-02
Factors 2026-07-17
Tape 2026-09-02
Factors 2026-07-17
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026SOLVENT · 1 FLAGGED
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 179.2 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
179.19SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 3/8
Piotroski F-score 3 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills26.57×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.01
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$122.70M
Free cash flow · TTMcash left after running and reinvesting in the business$-235.37M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
87th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.00%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
67 / 100
1 critical · 0 watch · 2 clear of 3 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 179.19Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.01long-term debt 0.01× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/8Piotroski F-score 3 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsNAn/aFiling forensics not available · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026POOR · 22/100
Business quality
-28% return on equity, and capital earning -33% against a 10% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
22 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-28.3%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-43.0pp
Earns -33% on invested capital that costs about 10%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Asset growth vs peersIN LINE
74th pctile
The balance sheet grew +24% on the year. Fast asset growth is usually a ramp; occasionally it is the start of an inventory problem.
Free cash flow (TTM)TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
$-235.37M
Cash left after running and reinvesting in the business.
Revenue (TTM)TRAILING
$0
Trailing twelve-month revenue from the latest filings.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+0.7%
3 months+60.4%
6 months+86.8%
Year to date+78.9%
1 year+256.8%
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+122.2%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 5%
95 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 10, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
4 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
17%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missP(ROSE | MISS)
29%
The mirror of the line above, over its own denominator.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±2.1%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Oct 13, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,533,785
21d48%0.0%720,839
63d50%+0.1%226,963
slope +0.01 over 40 bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,261,485
21d50%0.0%593,026
63d52%+0.4%187,344
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,013,005
21d51%+0.1%475,568
63d53%+0.4%149,429
three peaks ≈ equal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%1,293,438
21d49%0.0%607,588
63d51%+0.2%191,671
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%667,086
21d51%+0.1%313,950
63d53%+0.4%99,082
flat resistance, rising support
52w breakout · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%201,695
21d46%0.0%94,722
63d51%+0.2%29,671
at/near 52-week high
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%558,624
21d52%+0.1%261,666
63d54%+0.4%81,681
testing recent support
Rsi overbought · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d40%0.0%271,855
21d42%0.0%127,927
63d45%0.0%40,293
RSI 74 ≥ 70
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%799,756
21d44%0.0%375,743
63d47%0.0%116,642
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
Macd bearish cross · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%+0.1%160,672
21d50%0.0%75,626
63d50%0.0%23,954
MACD crossed below signal
03-26.0× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $135.07, -26.0× forward earnings, RSI 80, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $102.38 · 200-day $78.45. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-08-29 → 2026-09-02
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
The session's move is not on file.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)OVERBOUGHT
80
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±0.3%
$0.44
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-1.40
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position61% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$132.14
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$133.01
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
9 Nov 2026 · tomorrowNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=12,270
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
High1.32× segment rate · n=6,842
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 88% of cases (n=6,842).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=12,270) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$1.79
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/EAnalysts expect a loss over the next twelve months, so there are no earnings for the price to be a multiple of.Not meaningful
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets11.3×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-2.28%
2 of the 2 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. 1 is marked not meaningful because the figure it divides into is negative — shown as absent rather than as a low, cheap-looking number. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThe technical factors this engine reads are more than four days old, so any level it composed would be anchored to a tape that has moved. They return with the next nightly factor run.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 12, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-18 expiry · Chain · Sep 12, 2026
Max pain-26.0%
$100.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.19
84% calls
16% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.06
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $0.01
±0.0%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$135.00CALL625
$140.00CALL531
$100.00PUT125
$85.00CALL114
$110.00PUT49
$125.00PUT28
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $100.00
531
$140.00
0625
$135.00
216
$130.00
30
$125.00
280
$120.00
014
$115.00
00
$110.00
491
$105.00
04
$100.00
12510
$95.00
010
$90.00
1114
$85.00
00
$75.00
240
$60.00
00
$40.00
1
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$135.090.0%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$135.00-0.1%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$100.00-26.0%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$102.38-24.2%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$100.00-26.0%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -5
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 111%, short interest is 7.38% of float, and 15 analysts average $135.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-5LEANING · 30d
0 bull / 4 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
1 analyst downgrade in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-1
latest EPS missed by 12%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($923,642 across 26 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (3/8)
Signal
0 bull / 4 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -5 over 30d, a leaning reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readNov 8, 2026
Signal
5 of 6 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.03 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street15 covering firms
Consensus rating15 ANALYSTS
Hold
14% buy · 86% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 15 covering firms.
Mean price target0%
$135
$133now $135$135
A $133–$135 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$-5.20
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
Truist Securities$135↑48/100
BTIG—↓54/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
110.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
2.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
7.38%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float94% OF SHARES
57.90M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)96th PCTILE
$398.94M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Fox Jennifer A. · DirectorSellnot on file—03 Sep
Dambkowski Carl · Chief Medical OfficerSellnot on file—03 Sep
Dambkowski Carl · Chief Medical OfficerSellnot on file—03 Sep
Fox Jennifer A. · DirectorSellnot on file—03 Sep
Fox Jennifer A. · DirectorSellnot on file—03 Sep
Fairmount Funds Management LLC · DirectorSellnot on file—03 Sep
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Nov 6, 2026NONE
flat
We don't have a fresh enough quote for APGE to measure its move since the last close.
News tone · 7-day—
56 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
MonIs Apogee Enterprises (APOG) Outperforming Other Industrial Products Stocks This Year? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Oct 15APGE261016P00055000 Interactive Stock Chart | APGE Oct 2026 55.000 put Stock - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
Oct 15APGE Q2 2026 Earnings: Wider-Than-Expected Loss of $1.14 Per Share as Pre-Revenue Biotech Reports No Top Line - www.dars.gov.etwww.dars.gov.etnot scored
Oct 5APGE Q2 2026 Earnings: Wider-Than-Expected Loss as Clinical-Stage Spending Continues - Profit Guidance Range - www.dars.gov.etwww.dars.gov.etnot scored
Sep 29AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) Stock: Apogee Deal Deepens Its Immunology Pipeline - kalkine.cakalkine.canot scored
Sep 14Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. SEC Filing (Sep 14, 2026) - stocktitan.netstocktitan.netnot scored
Sep 9Is AbbVie (ABBV)’s $10.9 Billion Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Deal the Next Catalyst for Growth?Insider Monkeynot scored
Sep 9Is AbbVie (ABBV)’s $10.9 Billion Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Deal the Next Catalyst for Growth? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0512 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.00, 157% annual volatility, a -25% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−22.4%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−52.0%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-24.6%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
1.00
The market explains about 3.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
157%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure52
Overheat30
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (3/8)TTM · -2
LowAnalyst moves1 analyst downgrade in 90d90d · -1
LowEarningslatest EPS missed by 12%4 quarters · -1
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($923,642 across 26 sells) in 120d120d · -1
Signal
4 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.4%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.4% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
3.3%0.4× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.4× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 22.5% · tail cap 2.4% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 2.4% is the number (n=21,870). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
MedLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 46.7% against a 11.0% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — above the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 7.7 quarters of cash at current burn ($452M cash against $235M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 23.5% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands tomorrow, and the chain prices ±0.0% for the week.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.4% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record12 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
25 logged
25 calls logged on this name, 12 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksBIOTECHNOLOGY
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-21.5% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
VRTXPeer$547.09+0.85%
REGNPeer$904.35+0.16%
ARGXPeer$927.21+3.63%
RVMDPeer$192.28+8.24%
CSLLYPeer$34.65-0.89%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-07-14
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 3, 2026
Initial jobless claimsLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +4.0% · Rose on 86 of 156 report days
Across the last 156 Initial jobless claims reports since Jul 27, 2023, APGE moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 4.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 10 days.
Housing startsLittle effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +2.0% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +4.4% · Rose on 18 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Housing starts reports since Jul 21, 2023, APGE moved +2.0% on average on the day and was 4.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is due in 12 days.
Consumer sentiment (UMich)Little effect either wayLittle direct link.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +5.3% · Rose on 19 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Consumer sentiment (UMich) reports since Jul 26, 2023, APGE moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 5.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Little effect either way
People need care regardless of prices; healthcare barely reacts to the print itself.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +3.4% · Two weeks later +5.9% · Rose on 21 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jul 29, 2023, APGE moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 5.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionLittle effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on rates.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +2.5% · Two weeks later +5.2% · Rose on 15 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 FOMC decision reports since Jul 31, 2023, APGE moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 5.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Industrial productionLittle effect either way
Healthcare does not track the business cycle.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later +1.8% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 15 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Industrial production reports since Aug 15, 2023, APGE moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Little effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.7% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +4.8% · Rose on 18 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Aug 5, 2023, APGE moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 4.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Little effect either way
Healthcare demand does not depend on hiring.
Typical for the Healthcare sector
On the day -0.5% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +4.6% · Rose on 20 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Aug 5, 2023, APGE moved -0.5% on average on the day and was 4.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
SNY · Competitorcompetitor+0.28%Rumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
SNYCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.