Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) — Airlines. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 2:09 PM ETVol 2.41M · 3-mo avg 2.77M

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 4 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 3/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$40.74
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$43.92
center $43.92 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.18
7.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.08× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.95×
52-week range$33.03 – $60.63
Below high since 2015-59.6% · $101.23 high
Risk / reward0.91 : 1
Plan stop$37.66
Max pain$40.00 options cluster
RSI 1446.3 fires under 35 · fires near $38.00
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple90.9× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-7.4% · burning cash

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 48% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
46.3
fires under 35 · fires near $38.00
vs 50-day
✓
$43.93
below the line
Bollinger
●
$39.25
no lower pierce · fires near $38.88
VWAP 20
●
$40.86
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $40.85
Entry level
✓
$40.74
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$35.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context✓
+0.24
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.95×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
10.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.54
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-22
in 19 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file