Deep dive · OTC Markets OTCPK: ABBNY
ABB Ltd stock analysis
Everything behind the call on ABB Ltd. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — ABBNY trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $98.32 · -1.3%
200-day $92.51 · +5.0%
200-day $92.51 · +5.0%
Valuation
26.4× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 2.50%
Dividend
1.23%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
None flagged
5 checks run, 5 clear
beta 1.58 · vol 28% ann.
worst drawdown -16%
worst drawdown -16%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does210 chars
ABB Ltd provides electrification, motion, and automation solutions and products for customers in utilities, industry and transport, and infrastructure in Europe, the Americas, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
OTC Markets OTCPK · USDElectrical Equipment & Parts
$97.09-0.79 · -0.81%CLOSED · vol 150.5K
52-week range↑ 44% off low · ↓ 11.9% off high
$67.24now $97.09$110.20
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jul 9, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 6.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 5 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
6.27SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 9, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
12.9σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 7/9
Piotroski F-score 7 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.56×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.57
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.18
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$4.45B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
11th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
0.60%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
0.65%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.1%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.65%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE A
100 / 100
0 critical · 0 watch · 5 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 6.27Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.56M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.47long-term debt 0.47× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 7/9Piotroski F-score 7 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 5 clear. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026GOOD · 78/100
Business quality
14% net margin, 29% return on equity, +9% revenue growth, and capital earning 22% against a 12% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
78 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
14.3%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
41.1%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
17.2%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
29.4%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
10.7pp
Earns 22% on invested capital that costs about 12%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
48.5%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-1.7%
3 months-8.3%
6 months+24.0%
Year to date+31.4%
1 year+37.7%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+8.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+21.6%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+41.6%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 42%
42 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsApr 22, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 4 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias1.05× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs low for this name — it routinely clears the bar
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
1.23%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope -0.05 over 40 bars
Doji
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%127,238
21d50%0.0%59,927
63d50%-0.1%19,121
open≈close — indecision
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.2%701,064
21d47%-0.4%328,275
63d47%-1.4%104,377
U-base + small handle pullback
0326.4× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $97.09, 26.4× forward earnings, RSI 48.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed2 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $98.32 · 200-day $92.51. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 0.81% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
48
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.5%
$2.46
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.40
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position52% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$96.45
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$94.43
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.04× segment rate · n=6,159
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 69% of cases (n=6,159).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$95 – $973 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $96.87, S1 at $96.29, Pivot low at $95.91.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-2.39pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-2.41
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months26.4×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported35.7×
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth3.82
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit5.4×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets11.1×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay25.7×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off41.0×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value2.50%
6 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 0%, short interest is 0.13% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by 5%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (7/9)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
0.2%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.13%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Free float99% OF SHARES
1.81B
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)74th PCTILE
$29.85M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
-0.81%
ABBNY fell −0.81% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
0 of 1 disclosures are buys and 1 is a sale. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0511 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.58, 28% annual volatility, a -16% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−6.3%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−12.0%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-16.0%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.58
Moves about 1.6× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
28%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure22
Buying pressure1
Overheat1
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by 5%4 quarters · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.2%0.2× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.8% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.58 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
24 logged
24 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on ABBNYTHIS NAME
24
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT & PARTS
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-5.3% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
CYATYPeer$15.60-0.45%
ABLZFPeer$97.49-1.53%
VRTPeer$253.28+3.25%
BEPeer$288.70+8.27%
PRYMFPeer$138.74-5.81%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Inflation (CPI) reactionn=39
0.98×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Jobs report reactionn=40
0.86×
On these days it moves about 0.9× the market, regardless of company news.
Fed decision (FOMC) reactionn=39
0.86×
On these days it moves about 0.9× the market, regardless of company news.
Inflation (PCE) reactionn=39
1.03×
On these days it moves about 1.0× the market, regardless of company news.
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 27, 2026
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +2.6% · Rose on 7 of 13 report days
Across the last 13 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Jul 28, 2023, ABBNY moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 2.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising layoffs signal factories and builders are slowing.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 98 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, ABBNY moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedFactories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later +2.0% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, ABBNY moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 2.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Costlier financing slows factory and equipment orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 18 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, ABBNY moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Building products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, ABBNY moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Factories buy equipment when they are running hot.
Typical for the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, ABBNY moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedStrong hiring means factories and builders are busy.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.6% · Two weeks later +2.0% · Rose on 23 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, ABBNY moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 2.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedStrong hiring means factories and builders are busy.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.5% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, ABBNY moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
SIEGY · Competitorcompetitornot pricedRumored · manual
HTHIF · Competitorcompetitor-0.03%Rumored · manual
NVDA · Partnerpartner+0.22%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.