Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) — Communication Equipment. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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AAOIpeers & supply-chain relationships

AAOI fair-value estimate

AAOI earnings history

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 3.62M · 3-mo avg 10.23M

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)

AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
0net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 18/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$97.57
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$103–106
center $104.68 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$12.54
12.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 11% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
Elevated
1.20× the norm · 95% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 11% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.11×
52-week range$18.50 – $233.67
Below high since 2015-58.0% · $233.67 high
Risk / reward0.25 : 1
Plan stop$84.56
Max pain$100.00 options cluster
RSI 1441.5 fires under 35 · fires near $90.50
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple21.5× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-4.2% · burning cash

Trading in line with its own normal, price up 2.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 54% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
41.5
fires under 35 · fires near $90.50
vs 50-day
$112.99
below the line
Bollinger
$89.84
no lower pierce · fires near $87.13
VWAP 20
$108.43
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$97.57
level below · fires near $98.54
Put wall
$100.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
-0.98
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.11×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
15.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$6.50
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 35 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file