Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) — $813.51 −8.61%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

LITEpeers & supply-chain relationships

LITE fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 6.14M · Avg 5.30M
LITELumentum Holdings Inc.$813.51-8.61%Pre-market$816.86+0.41%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

3 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+4net
4 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 8 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
3 of 6 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.4× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$809.44
basis · pivot low · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$1,069–1,102
center $1,085.68 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$152.78
18.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~78% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.16× · 6.14M vs 5.30M avg
52-week range$111.20 – $1,085.68
Below high since 2015-25.1% · $1,085.68 high
Risk / reward1 : 2.1
Plan stop$679.28
Max pain$430.00 far from the price — likely a stale options snapshot
RSI 1452.0 fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Forensic flags5 review
What-if price
$813.51
$593.93 · -27.0%-27.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+18.8% · $966.29+18.8%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
52.0
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
$817.03
at the line
Bollinger
$625.38
no lower pierce · fires near $596.67
VWAP 20
$771.55
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $770.97
Entry level
$809.44
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$850.00
below max put OI strike
MACD
+17.71
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
1.16×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
12.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$85.00
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
11 Aug 2026
· in -1 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed