Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) — Communication Equipment. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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LITEpeers & supply-chain relationships

LITE fair-value estimate

LITE earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.85M · 3-mo avg 4.60M

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)

LITELumentum Holdings Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+6net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · moderate
Bull 7 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionPCE inflation days · ~42% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$936.94
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$1,070–1,101
center $1,085.68 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$96.52
10.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.88×
52-week range$147.81 – $1,085.68
Below high since 2015-13.3% · $1,085.68 high
Risk / reward1.01 : 1
Plan stop$798.51
Max pain$932.50 options cluster
RSI 1454.5 fires under 35 · fires near $695.86
Forensic flags5 review
Earnings multiple142.7× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield0.4% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 45% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
54.5
fires under 35 · fires near $695.86
vs 50-day
●
$859.07
above the line · fires near $865.42
Bollinger
●
$825.82
no lower pierce · fires near $809.42
VWAP 20
●
$918.69
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $918.32
Entry level
✓
$936.94
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$890.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context✓
+0.53
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.88×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
7.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$61.98
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file