Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) — Entertainment Content. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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WMG fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.32M · 3-mo avg 2.08M

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)

WMGWarner Music Group Corp.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 10
$31.68
near a support level · Nov 10
$34.00
near a heavy call-option level · midpoint $34.00 · Nov 10
±$2.71
±8.5% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
67% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume39% below normal0.61× its 20-day average
Past year's range$23.34 – $35.42lowest to highest price
From its peak35.8% belowpeak $49.59, highest since 2020
Gain vs. risk1.08 to 1$1.08 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$29.84the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$30.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)61.4fires under 35 · fires near $26.90
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit16.2× next year25.5× last 12 months
Cash it generates2.1%of its market value, per year

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 0.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 24% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
61.4
fires under 35 · fires near $26.90
vs 50-day
●
$29.22
above the line · fires near $29.43
Bollinger
●
$29.36
no lower pierce · fires near $29.13
VWAP 20
●
$30.94
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $30.94
Entry level
✓
$31.68
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$25.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context✓
+0.04
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.61×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
7.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.92
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-19
in 7 sessions
Next dividend
2.51% yld
no ex-date on file