Vistra Corp. (VST) — Independent Power Producers. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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VSTpeers & supply-chain relationships

VST fair-value estimate

VST earnings history

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 17, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.95M · 3-mo avg 4.37M

Vistra Corp. (VST)

VSTVistra Corp.loading…
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QTick signal
-5net
0 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 0 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressCautionPCE inflation days · ~13% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$142.84
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$146–149
center $147.71 · basis · daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$9.27
6.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.91×
52-week range$132.66 – $219.82
Below high since 2016-34.7% · $219.82 high
Risk / reward0.40 : 1
Plan stop$133.13
Max pain$148.00 options cluster
RSI 1448.8 fires under 35 · fires near $130.21
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple13.8× fwd · 23.7× trailing
P/E vs its own past32nd pctile · 26.1× median
Free cash flow yield2.7% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 43% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Bearish tape — sell
RSI 14
48.8
fires under 35 · fires near $130.21
vs 50-day
$147.80
below the line
Bollinger
$132.47
no lower pierce · fires near $130.50
VWAP 20
$142.70
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $142.66
Entry level
$142.84
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$150.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-14
MACD
Context
+0.19
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.91×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
3.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.86
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 35 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.23
ex-date 2026-09-21