Deep dive · PNK: TCNNF
Trulieve Cannabis Corp. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Trulieve Cannabis Corp. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — TCNNF trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Earnings
In 38 days
5 Nov 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Valuation
36.9× forward
Against consensus earnings
FCF yield 12.49%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 2 clear
worst drawdown -16%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
PNK · USDSpecialty & Generic Pharma
$8.84-0.05 · -0.56%CLOSED · vol 582.8K
Quote Jul 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-07-17
Tape 2026-07-17
01
Survival & solvency
and 2 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 27, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills4.43×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.49
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$308.09M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
59th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
1 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 1.04Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.77M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.20long-term debt 0.20× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026POOR · 40/100
Business quality
-10% net margin, -10% return on equity, 0% revenue growth, and capital earning 7% against a 9% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
40 / 100POOR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-9.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
60.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
12.6%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-10.0%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-2.1pp
Earns 7% on invested capital that costs about 9%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-15.1%
3 months+36.7%
6 months-2.5%
Year to date+1.0%
1 year+94.0%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-0.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
60%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Rose after a missData unavailableNo misses in the measured window, so there is no denominator to compute this over. Shown as absent rather than as 0%.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.7%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 28, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,138,506
21d47%-0.3%534,204
63d48%-0.9%170,670
slope +0.07 over 40 bars
Bullish engulfing · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.3%138,629
21d48%-0.4%65,270
63d48%-0.5%20,857
green body engulfs prior red
Piercing line · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.3%139,175
21d48%-0.2%65,598
63d49%-0.4%21,030
closes above prior midpoint
Symmetrical triangle
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%304,030
21d46%-0.7%142,618
63d46%-1.9%45,314
converging highs & lows — breakout pending
Bear flag · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%63,997
21d44%0.0%30,187
63d45%-0.7%9,433
sharp drop then weak bounce — continuation
Gap down · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d45%0.0%171,828
21d46%-0.3%80,806
63d44%-2.7%25,317
opened -4.2% below prior close
0336.9× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $8.84, 36.9× forward earnings, RSI 57.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
57WARM
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-07-10 → 2026-07-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Down 0.56% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Typical day (ATR-14)±8.6%
$0.76
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.09
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$8.52
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Pivots (classic)R1 $9 · S1 $9
$8.88
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
DeMark countdownDOWN SETUP
4 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
5 Nov 2026 · in 38 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 6 Sept; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · tomorrowJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=81,071
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 79% of cases (n=81,071).
Valuation
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-1.60
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months36.9×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.4×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.5×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay6.1×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off9.5×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value12.49%
1 of the 6 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThe technical factors this engine reads are more than four days old, so any level it composed would be anchored to a tape that has moved. They return with the next nightly factor run.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 0%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by a wide margin (low EPS base)
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
0.0%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
1.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float98% OF SHARES
165.84M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)54th PCTILE
$3.33M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 28, 2026NONE
flat
We don't have a fresh enough quote for TCNNF to measure its move since the last close.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
0 of 2 disclosures are buys and 2 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
055 graded calls
Risk & track record
a -16% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-15.8%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
2.6%0.3× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 38 days.
Our track record5 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
18 logged
18 calls logged on this name, 5 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on TCNNFTHIS NAME
18
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 5.
0610-K disclosed linksSPECIALTY & GENERIC PHARMA
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 5 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-31.8% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
JHPCYPeer$11.500.00%
GDERFPeer$191.38-6.00%
TAKPeer$18.86+1.45%
GALDYPeer$39.45+0.31%
TKPHFPeer$37.000.00%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystTOMORROW
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stock
Data unavailableNo scheduled report or decision has a documented read for TCNNF's sector yet, and there is no price history around one on file. Both fill in as the company's sector is mapped and past reports are studied.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections5 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 5 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
IIPR · Suppliersupplier-0.13%Confirmed · 10K
IIPR · Customercustomer-0.13%Rumored · manual
IQV · Partnerpartner-1.69%Rumored · manual
AMZN · Suppliersupplier+0.12%Rumored · manual
PFE · Competitorcompetitor+0.92%Rumored · manual
1 of 5 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.