Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) — Packaged Foods. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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SFD fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.43M · 3-mo avg 1.64M

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)

SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 12/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$18.94
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$20.00
center $20.00 · basis · call wall + round · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.84
4.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.77× the norm · 61% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.66×
52-week range$18.81 – $29.81
Below high sincenot on file
Risk / reward0.86 : 1
Plan stop$17.92
Max pain$20.00 options cluster
RSI 1419.1 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple8.5× fwd · 7.1× trailing
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield9.6% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 0.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 53% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
19.1
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$22.80
below the line
Bollinger
●
$18.32
no lower pierce · fires near $18.12
VWAP 20
✓
$20.47
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$18.94
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$20.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context●
-0.06
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.66×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
12.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.51
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-27
in 22 sessions
Next dividend
6.57% yld
no ex-date on file