RXO, Inc. (RXO) — Trucking & Freight. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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RXO fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 4.06M · 3-mo avg 2.78M

RXO, Inc. (RXO)

RXORXO, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+8net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 10 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$27.78
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9
$29.90
near the 52-week high and a round-number price · midpoint $29.90 · Nov 9
±$0.25
±0.9% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Low
58% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 0.7× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume10% above normal1.10× its 20-day average
Past year's range$10.43 – $29.90lowest to highest price
From its peak14.9% belowpeak $32.82, highest since 2022
Gain vs. risk1.55 to 1$1.55 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$26.64the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$17.50price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)57.1fires under 35 · fires near $24.57
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit41.9× next yearloss over the last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastusual P/E 47.3×median of the last 5 years
Cash it generates-0.2%it used more cash than it made

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
57.1
fires under 35 · fires near $24.57
vs 50-day
●
$24.47
above the line · fires near $24.64
Bollinger
●
$27.32
no lower pierce · fires near $27.15
VWAP 20
✓
$28.40
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$27.78
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$15.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-09
MACD
Context●
-0.34
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.10×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
8.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.57
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-05
in 60 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file