Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) — Trucking & Freight. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ODFL fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.02M · 3-mo avg 1.73M

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+9net
3 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 11 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeOKPCE inflation days · ~14% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 44/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$174.21
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 1.2% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$207–210
center $208.42 · basis · bb upper + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$9.73
5.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 17% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.04× the norm · 69% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 17% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.93×
52-week range$126.01 – $252.03
Below high since 2015-30.5% · $252.03 high
Risk / reward2.76 : 1
Plan stop$161.82
Max pain$185.00 options cluster
RSI 1425.0 oversold
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple27.2× fwd · 34.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past55th pctile · 32.3× median
Free cash flow yield2.5% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 58% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
25.0
oversold
vs 50-day
$208.37
below the line
Bollinger
$170.09
no lower pierce · fires near $169.39
VWAP 20
$188.69
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$174.21
below the model level
Put wall
$180.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
-0.55
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.93×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$6.20
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
0.67% yld
no ex-date on file