Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) — Biotechnology. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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RAREpeers & supply-chain relationships

RARE fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 4.29M · 3-mo avg 3.65M

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)

RAREUltragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 22/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$14.70
basis · pivot low + s1 + put wall · as of 2026-09-24
Target exit zone
$15.01
center $15.01 · basis · call wall + daily pivot + round · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.14
7.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.20× the norm · 95% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (4/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.52×
52-week range$12.73 – $39.89
Below high since 2015-91.8% · $180.56 high
Risk / reward0.18 : 1
Plan stop$12.92
Max pain$17.50 options cluster
RSI 1432.3 washed out
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple21.7× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-33.7% · burning cash

Trading lighter than its own normal, price down 1.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 54% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
32.3
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$22.83
below the line
Bollinger
●
$7.29
no lower pierce · fires below the slider range
VWAP 20
✓
$15.70
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$14.70
below the model level
Put wall
✓
$15.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-24
MACD
Context●
-0.18
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.52×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
18.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.89
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 28 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file