Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) — Biotechnology. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:32 PM ETVol 1.07M · 3-mo avg 4.28M

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)

RAREUltragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-13net
0 bull / 4 bear factors · strong
Bull 0 pts·Bear 13 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$16.10
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9 · price is already 2.3% below it
$39.89
near the 52-week high · midpoint $39.89 · Nov 9
±$2.32
±14.7% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
Trading volume25% below normal0.75× its 20-day average
Past year's range$12.73 – $39.89lowest to highest price
From its peak90.9% belowpeak $180.56, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk10.21 to 1$10.21 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$13.77the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)51.8fires under 35 · fires near $12.31
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit69.7× next yearloss over the last 12 months
Cash it generates-28.3%it used more cash than it made

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 42% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Drawdown risk — high
RSI 14
●
51.8
fires under 35 · fires near $12.31
vs 50-day
✓
$15.84
at the line
Bollinger
●
$14.43
no lower pierce · fires near $14.16
VWAP 20
✓
$15.97
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$16.10
below the model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.28
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.75×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
21.3%
21.3% of float short — crowded
ATRStatic
$0.90
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-09
in 61 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file