Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) — $29.63 +2.88%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

MRPpeers & supply-chain relationships

MRP fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 395.6K · Avg 1.57M
MRPMillrose Properties, Inc.$29.63+2.88%

WAIT.

Not worth owning here — the balance sheet is under real strain and the filings carry red flags.

The balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band and 1 accounting red flag is raised — the quality screen fails at any price. 1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
0net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Quality fails the screen — a distress-zone balance sheet with forensic flags.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$28.66
basis · pivot low + s1 + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$32–33
center $32.54 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.66
5.6% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Low
~58% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 0.7× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.25× · 395.6K vs 1.57M avg
52-week range$26.30 – $36.00
Below high sincenot on file
Risk / reward1 : 3.0
Plan stop$27.37
Max pain$30.00 options cluster
RSI 1451.9 fires under 35 · fires near $27.71
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$29.63
$27.15 · -8.4%-8.4%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+5.6% · $31.29+5.6%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
51.9
fires under 35 · fires near $27.71
vs 50-day
$28.44
above the line · fires near $28.70
Bollinger
$27.79
no lower pierce · fires near $27.68
VWAP 20
$28.73
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $28.72
Entry level
$28.66
level below · fires near $28.93
Put wall
$30.00
below max put OI strike
MACD
+0.02
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.25×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
4.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.64
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
12 Aug 2026
· in 0 days
Next dividend
10.26% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed