Deep dive · NYSE: MOG-B
Moog Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Moog Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Quality and Trend are pulling against each other and one side is clearly ahead. The net lands at +1 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.28, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
quality / value, sentiment vote up. 1 of 5 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
insider flow, risk flags vote down. 4 of 5 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Quality against Trend.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −9.9%; and the binding position cap is 4.5% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tape
No overseas listings — MOG-B trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $392.54 · 0.0%
200-day $340.68 · +15.3%
200-day $340.68 · +15.3%
Earnings
In 55 days
20 Nov 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,854
Dividend
0.31%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 4 clear
beta 0.36 · vol 24% ann.
worst drawdown -20%
worst drawdown -20%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NYSE · USDAerospace & Defense
$392.720.00 · 0.00%CLOSED · vol 122
52-week range↑ 95% off low · ↓ 12.7% off high
$201.04now $392.72$450.00
Quote Sep 24, 2026 · 3:58 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jul 6, 2026NO SOLVENCY RISK
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 5.7 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 6.2×, and 4 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
5.71SAFE ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 6, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)COMFORTABLE
8.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.100%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 7/9
Piotroski F-score 7 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills2.12×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.47
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill6.2×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.17
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$883.67M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
60th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
0.51%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
1.06%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
0.4%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
1.27%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE A
90 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 4 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 5.71Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.33M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.47long-term debt 0.47× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 7/9Piotroski F-score 7 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 4 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026FAIR · 58/100
Business quality
6% net margin, 12% return on equity, +7% revenue growth, and capital earning 11% against a 8% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
58 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
6.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
27.4%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
10.6%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
11.8%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
3.7pp
Earns 11% on invested capital that costs about 8%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
15.2%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month+2.0%
3 months-7.4%
6 months+28.1%
Year to date+61.0%
1 year+90.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+7.0%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+14.5%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+91.6%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 41%
41 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 55 DAYS
20 Nov 2026
Reports bmo · revenue 1.1 B
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.31%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.12 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d36%0.0%507,560
21d40%0.0%237,486
63d44%0.0%73,638
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Tweezer bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d44%0.0%344,241
21d46%0.0%162,135
63d47%0.0%51,160
matching lows
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
03
Price & timing
Price $392.72, RSI 59.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $392.54 · 200-day $340.68. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.00% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)WARM
59
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±0.9%
$3.65
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+3.96
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position100% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$375.28
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$381.76
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
20 Nov 2026 · in 55 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
46 / 53cohort n=3,987
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.04× segment rate · n=6,159
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 69% of cases (n=6,159).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
2.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$382 – $3912 supports
Where prior demand appeared: Pivot low at $389.32, Pivot low at $383.89.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 2 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 53% of cases (n=3,987) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-2.18pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-17.23
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported33.3×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit3.2×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets6.2×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay27.3×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off103.8×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value1.03%
5 of the 6 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low
$390.76Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$450.00$449–$451
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$381.15risk $9.61/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
6.17:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
0.0%
short-term trend line · $392.54
To the 200-day
-13.3%
primary trend line · $340.68
To the composer's target
+14.6%
52-week high · set Sep 25, 2026 · $450.00
To the composer's stop
-2.9%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 25, 2026 · $381.15
To the 52-week high
+14.6%
highest print of the past year · $450.00
To the 52-week low
-48.8%
lowest print of the past year · $201.04
A typical day (ATR)
$389.07 – $396.37
±$3.65 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $390.76 · stop $381.15 · target $450.00, a 6.17:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 5%, short interest is 0.00% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
2 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Insider flow120D · TIMING
-1
net insider selling ($2,590,347 across 14 sells) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (7/9)
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (100/100)
Risk flagsDAILY · CONTEXT
-1
expensive valuation (bottom-quintile earnings yield)
Signal
2 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 4 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 26, 2026
Signal
4 of 5 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.28 means the disagreement is real but not a split decision.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
5.0%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
101.3%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
0.00%
The share of the tradable float sold short.
Dollar volume (ADV)22nd PCTILE
$66,370/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET -1
+1 / −2
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Mclachlan Stuart · Vice PresidentOption exercise$143,296—10 Sep
Mclachlan Stuart · Vice PresidentOption exercisenot on file—10 Sep
Mclachlan Stuart · Vice PresidentTax withholding$424,146—10 Sep
FISHBACK DONALD R · DirectorGiftnot on file—11 Sep
Scannell John · DirectorSell$170,354—11 Aug
Scannell John · DirectorSell$100,082—11 Aug
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 25, 2026NONE
0.00%
MOG-B was little changed +0.00% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
News tone · 7-day—
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 47 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
ThuWhat Moog (MOG.A)'s Earnings Beat Means For Shareholders - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
ThuMoog Inc. (MOG-B) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
WedWinners And Losers Of Q2: Moog (NYSE:MOG.A) Vs The Rest Of The Aerospace StocksStockStorynot scored
WedWinners And Losers Of Q2: Moog (NYSE:MOG.A) Vs The Rest Of The Aerospace Stocks - StockStoryStockStorynot scored
WedMoog (MOG.A) Stock Looks Above Fair Value At Current EarningsSimply Wall St.not scored
WedWinners And Losers Of Q2: Moog (NYSE:MOG.A) Vs The Rest Of The Aerospace Stocks - TradingViewTradingViewnot scored
Sep 19Moog Inc. (MOG-A) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance AustraliaYahoo Finance Australianot scored
Sep 16Understanding Momentum Shifts in (MOG.B) - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.36, 24% annual volatility, a -20% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−9.9%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−19.9%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.4×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.4×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-19.6%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.36
The market explains about 1.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
24%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure34
Overheat29
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
LowInsider flownet insider selling ($2,590,347 across 14 sells) in 120d120d · -1
LowRisk flagsexpensive valuation (bottom-quintile earnings yield)Daily · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
4.5%tail cap binds
max defensible size 4.5% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
1.5%0.2× its cohort · thinnest-traded micro-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this thinnest-traded micro-caps segment: 7.8%. This name reads 0.2× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 105.5% · tail cap 4.5% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 4.5% is the number (n=10,596). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.1% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.31% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
19 logged
19 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on MOG-BTHIS NAME
19
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksAEROSPACE & DEFENSE
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-14.9% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
GEPeer$327.09+2.29%
RTXPeer$189.40+0.42%
BAPeer$198.07+0.65%
LMTPartner$519.56-0.79%
HWMPeer$232.48+1.35%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
3 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 20, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +0.8% · Rose on 5 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, MOG-B moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 0.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -2.0% · A week later -1.3% · Two weeks later +2.4% · Rose on 0 of 13 report days
Across the last 13 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Jul 28, 2023, MOG-B moved -2.0% on average on the day and was 2.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising layoffs signal factories and builders are slowing.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.2% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 26 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, MOG-B moved +0.2% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 3 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedFactories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later +2.9% · Rose on 3 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, MOG-B moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 2.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Costlier financing slows factory and equipment orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +3.0% · Rose on 5 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, MOG-B moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 3.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Building products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -0.1% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 8 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, MOG-B moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expectedFactories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later 0.0% · Two weeks later +2.9% · Rose on 3 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, MOG-B moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 2.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually hurts when producer prices run hotter than expected
Factories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +1.0% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 10 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, MOG-B moved +1.0% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · 1 confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
DOD · Customercustomer0.00%Rumored · manual
NOC · Competitorcompetitor+0.30%Rumored · manual
LMT · Partnerpartner-0.79%Confirmed · manual
1 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.