Mattel, Inc. (MAT) — Leisure & Recreation. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:02 PM ETVol 1.46M · 3-mo avg 5.78M

Mattel, Inc. (MAT)

MATMattel, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 7 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 2/100 · Nov 10
$15.51
near a recent low, a support level and the 200-day average · Nov 9
$22–23
near the 52-week high · midpoint $22.48 · Nov 9
±$0.07
±0.4% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
85% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.1× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume3% above normal1.03× its 20-day average
Past year's range$12.40 – $22.48lowest to highest price
From its peak55.5% belowpeak $35.00, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk4.52 to 1$4.52 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$14.28the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$11.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)49.9fires under 35 · fires near $14.37
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit10.0× next year11.6× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 47%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 11.6×
Cash it generates9.0%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 57% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
49.9
fires under 35 · fires near $14.37
vs 50-day
●
$15.03
above the line · fires near $15.15
Bollinger
●
$14.56
no lower pierce · fires near $14.29
VWAP 20
✓
$16.17
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
●
$15.51
level below · fires near $15.67
Put wall
●
$10.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context●
-0.25
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.03×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
11.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.62
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-09
in 61 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file