Mattel, Inc. (MAT) — Leisure & Recreation. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 4.32M · 3-mo avg 4.30M

Mattel, Inc. (MAT)

MATMattel, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-4net
1 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 1 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 40/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$13.22
basis · low 52w + pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$14.36
center $14.36 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.75
5.6% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.77× the norm · 61% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.08×
52-week range$12.73 – $22.48
Below high since 2015-62.0% · $35.00 high
Risk / reward1.30 : 1
Plan stop$12.47
Max pain$14.00 options cluster
RSI 1438.9 fires under 35 · fires near $13.11
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple8.4× fwd · 9.9× trailing
P/E vs its own past7th pctile · 11.8× median
Free cash flow yield10.7% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 58% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

Bearish tape — sell
RSI 14
●
38.9
fires under 35 · fires near $13.11
vs 50-day
✓
$14.39
below the line
Bollinger
●
$12.53
no lower pierce · fires near $12.35
VWAP 20
✓
$13.75
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$13.22
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$14.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context●
-0.06
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.08×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
11.1%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.35
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-27
in 22 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file