Everything behind the call on Keysight Technologies, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
Event and Value are pulling against each other and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +2 over 30d, a balanced reading on a dispersion of 0.46, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings vote up. 1 of 4 independent evidence families agree.
Leans down · and why
risk flags vote down. 3 of 4 families lean the other way. The conflict that matters is Event against Value.
What it changes
Size, not direction. separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −10.9%; and the binding position cap is 3.2% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tape
No overseas listings — KEYS trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $326.04 · +2.7% 200-day $294.27 · +13.8%
Earnings
In 67 days
24 Nov 2026
beat 7–8 of the last 8 cohort P(beat) 80% · n=35,425
Valuation
24.2× forward
87th of its own five-year range
5yr median 30×
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 2 clear
beta 1.87 · vol 42% ann. worst drawdown -21%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 5/8WATCH
Piotroski F-score 5 of 8. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Your ownership stake
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
1.22%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
1.22%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
3.0%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.58%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
75 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 2 clear of 4 scored tests
2 of 5 checks clear
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 8.27Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/8Piotroski F-score 5 of 8 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 2 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02
Business quality
The quality blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
12-1 momentum
+98.2%EX LAST MONTH
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Profitability
Data unavailableNo parsed income statement is on file, so margins, returns on capital and cash generation cannot be computed for this name.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
+3.8%
3 months
-8.9%
6 months
+14.2%
Year to date
+60.4%
1 year
+91.7%
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 40%
40 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
cohort n=35,425 · this name's own n=8 · since 2000
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 7–8 OF THE LAST 8
8 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
n=8 measured prints
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
56%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
n=25 beats — a conditional rate over its own denominator, not a share of all prints
Rose after a missData unavailableNo misses in the measured window, so there is no denominator to compute this over. Shown as absent rather than as 0%.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±5.9%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
n=25 prints · p90 ±13.4% · worst 23.1% (2026-02-23)
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
No
No habit of selling off on a good report in the measured window.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,242,409
21d50%0.0%584,002
63d51%+0.2%184,289
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%504,664
21d48%0.0%237,571
63d49%0.0%74,935
flat support, falling resistance
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%694,881
21d47%-0.5%326,059
63d47%-1.1%104,116
U-base + small handle pullback
Near resistance · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%527,879
21d52%+0.1%247,463
63d54%+0.4%77,592
testing recent resistance
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%757,951
21d45%0.0%355,725
63d47%0.0%112,112
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
0387TH OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $335.00, 24.2× forward earnings, RSI 53.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $326.04 · 200-day $294.27. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 1.07% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$57.45B
Day range$331.76 – $336.13
Above 52-week low+111%
Realized volatility42% ann.
Worst drawdown-20.5%
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
53
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.1%
$10.24
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.92
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position94% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$321.59
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$321.29
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
24 Nov 2026 · in 67 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 20 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
50 / 50cohort n=13,084
Effectively a coin flip. A split this close is not an edge you can size on, whichever side is nominally ahead. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.23× segment rate · n=5,845
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 82% of cases (n=5,845).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.3σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$321 – $3303 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $326.98, Pivot low at $326.48, Pivot low at $326.11.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds are a coin flip.
Historically, names tripping 1 validated red flag finished lower 12 months later in 50% of cases (n=13,084) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-2.69pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months24.2×5yr median 30×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported45.5×87th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.95
1 of the 3 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$329.78Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high + round
$374.96$372–$378
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$309.31risk $20.48/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
2.21:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-2.7%
short-term trend line · $326.04
To the 200-day
-12.2%
primary trend line · $294.27
To the composer's target
+11.9%
52-week high + round · set Sep 17, 2026 · $374.96
To the composer's stop
-7.7%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $309.31
To the 52-week high
+11.9%
highest print of the past year · $374.96
To the 52-week low
-52.6%
lowest print of the past year · $158.79
A typical day (ATR)
$324.76 – $345.24
±$10.24 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $329.78 · stop $309.31 · target $374.96, a 2.21:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 93%, short interest is 1.71% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
Earnings +3
Risk flags -1
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category readSep 18, 2026
Signal
3 of 4 families lean down.
Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar. Dispersion of 0.46 means the disagreement is a genuine split.
A check on whether independent evidence families agree, rather than a second score.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
92.9%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.6%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.71%
Falling — shares short changed -9.3% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float99% OF SHARES
169.97M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)96th PCTILE
$462.26M/day
At this depth, position size is not a constraint for a retail account.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+1.07%
KEYS rose +1.07% in after-hours trading — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Matched · Sep 18, 2026
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
2 of 6 disclosures are buys and 4 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
Disclosed lawmaker trades, with their legal reporting lag.
0510 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.87, 42% annual volatility, a -21% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−10.9%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−25.3%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.5×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.5×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-20.5%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.87
Moves about 1.9× the market over the past year.
3-year beta 1.44
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
42%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure0
Buying pressure55
Overheat17
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
3.1%0.3× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.3× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 53.5% · tail cap 3.2% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 3.3% is the number (n=15,197). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 4.0% against a 8.7% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+2.24% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.87 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
33 logged
33 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
10 resolved · 23 open
Calls on KEYSTHIS NAME
33
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+0.7% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (headwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
COHRPeer$317.36+7.22%
GRMNPeer$274.06-0.47%
TDYPeer$603.46+0.25%
MKSIPeer$252.08+4.93%
FTVPeer$55.00-0.13%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, KEYS moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, KEYS moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Higher rates for longer hit tech hardest, because so much of its value is profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 16 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, KEYS moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, KEYS moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 12 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +1.9% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, KEYS moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Rising joblessness pushes the Fed toward lower rates, which lifts growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.5% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 87 of 168 report days
Across the last 168 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, KEYS moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Hotter inflation means higher interest rates for longer, and that hits fast-growing tech companies hardest because most of their value sits in profits years away.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +1.0% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, KEYS moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 11 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually hurts when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong hiring tells the Fed it can keep rates high, which weighs on growth-priced tech.
Typical for the Technology sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.7% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 21 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, KEYS moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections2 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 2 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
XOM · Customercustomer+0.17%Rumored · manual
GE · Customercustomer+0.26%Rumored · manual
0 of 2 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.