Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) — Resorts & Casinos. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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HGV fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 759.9K · 3-mo avg 1.11M

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)

HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-8net
0 bull / 5 bear factors · moderate
Bull 0 pts·Bear 8 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 75/100 · was 91 on Sep 21 · as of 2026-09-252/6Bottom watch · 2 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$35.59
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$43–44
center $43.45 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.56
7.2% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
0.98× the norm · 77% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.71×
52-week range$35.77 – $55.40
Below high since 2017-38.4% · $58.07 high
Risk / reward2.64 : 1
Plan stop$32.87
Max pain$45.00 options cluster
RSI 1427.1 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple20.8× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past39th pctile · 21.6× median
Free cash flow yield5.4% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 67% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

5 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
27.1
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$43.46
below the line
Bollinger
●
$33.34
no lower pierce · fires near $32.69
VWAP 20
✓
$38.53
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$35.59
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$40.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-23
MACD
Context●
-0.34
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.71×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
15.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.36
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 25 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file