Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) — Resorts & Casinos. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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HGV fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:17 PM ETVol 497.0K · 3-mo avg 1.09M

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)

HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-3net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 8 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$44.38
near a recent low and the 200-day average · Nov 9
$55–56
near the 52-week high · midpoint $55.40 · Nov 9
±$0.10
±0.2% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
85% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.1× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume1% below normal0.99× its 20-day average
Past year's range$33.99 – $55.40lowest to highest price
From its peak23.2% belowpeak $58.07, highest since 2017
Gain vs. risk1.93 to 1$1.93 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$39.88the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$45.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)78.8overbought
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit9.2× next year8.9× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 0%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 20.9×
Cash it generates4.3%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 32% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

0 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
78.8
overbought
vs 50-day
●
$37.56
above the line · fires near $37.76
Bollinger
●
$31.18
no lower pierce · fires below the slider range
VWAP 20
●
$38.64
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $38.58
Entry level
●
$44.38
level below · fires near $44.77
Put wall
●
$20.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context✓
+0.64
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.99×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
15.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.79
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-25
in 72 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
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