MGM Resorts International (MGM) — Resorts & Casinos. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MGM fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.34M · 3-mo avg 2.49M

MGM Resorts International (MGM)

MGMMGM Resorts Internationalloading…
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QTick signal
-1net
1 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE inflation days · not on fileCautionHeavy selling · 68/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$38.12
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 1.3% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$39.87
center $39.87 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.26
6.0% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 14% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
0.93× the norm · 73% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: hot selling
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 14% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.97×
52-week range$29.19 – $51.59
Below high since 2015-25.7% · $51.59 high
Risk / reward0.96 : 1
Plan stop$36.30
Max pain$41.00 options cluster
RSI 1419.5 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple18.8× fwd · 23.6× trailing
P/E vs its own past86th pctile · 13.7× median
Free cash flow yield14.7% · of market value

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 1.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 78% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

6 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
19.5
oversold
vs 50-day
$43.68
below the line
Bollinger
$38.00
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
$41.27
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$38.12
below the model level
Put wall
$43.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
-0.19
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.97×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
10.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.91
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file