The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) — Security & Protection Services. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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GEOpeers & supply-chain relationships

GEO fair-value estimate

GEO earnings history

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.31M · 3-mo avg 2.02M

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)

GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 32/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$31.06
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$33.15
center $33.15 · basis · bb upper + high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 84% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.60×
52-week range$12.51 – $33.15
Below high since 2015-14.4% · $36.46 high
Risk / reward0.60 : 1
Plan stop$28.01
Max pain—
RSI 1450.1 fires under 35 · fires near $27.51
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple18.4× fwd · 14.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past60th pctile · 12.7× median
Price / booknot on file

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 2.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 50% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
50.1
fires under 35 · fires near $27.51
vs 50-day
✓
$31.21
at the line
Bollinger
●
$29.94
no lower pierce · fires near $29.69
VWAP 20
●
$31.19
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $31.17
Entry level
✓
$31.06
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.10
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.60×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
9.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.31
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 30 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file