The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) — Security & Protection Services. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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GEO fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 9, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 2.88M · 3-mo avg 2.35M

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)

GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
2 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 1/100 · Nov 9
$26.82
near a recent low, a support level and the 200-day average · Nov 6
$29.97
near a round-number price, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $29.97 · Nov 6
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Elevated
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume17% above normal1.17× its 20-day average
Past year's range$12.51 – $33.17lowest to highest price
From its peak23.8% belowpeak $36.46, highest since 2015
Plan fails below$23.50the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)55.5fires under 35 · fires near $25.66
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit17.6× next year14.2× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 73%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 13.0×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 8.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 56% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

At target — take profit
RSI 14
●
55.5
fires under 35 · fires near $25.66
vs 50-day
✓
$29.99
at the line
Bollinger
●
$25.21
no lower pierce · fires near $24.60
VWAP 20
●
$27.95
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $27.92
Entry level
●
$26.82
level below · fires near $27.09
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.02
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.17×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
8.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.33
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2027-02-11
in 64 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file