Dow Inc. (DOW) — $30.58 +4.23%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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DOWpeers & supply-chain relationships

DOW fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 7.47M · Avg 11.44M
DOWDow Inc.$30.58+4.23%

WAIT.

Not worth owning here — the balance sheet is under real strain and the filings carry red flags.

The balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band and 1 accounting red flag is raised — the quality screen fails at any price. 2 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 6 pts·Bear 7 pts30d
2 of 6 aligned — not yet
Quality fails the screen — a distress-zone balance sheet with forensic flags.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$30.43
basis · pivot low + s1 + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$42–43
center $42.31 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.92
6.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~78% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.65× · 7.47M vs 11.44M avg
52-week range$20.65 – $42.74
Below high since 2019-57.6% · $72.18 high
Risk / reward1 : 4.2
Plan stop$27.59
Max pain$29.50 options cluster
RSI 1452.3 fires under 35 · fires near $27.03
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$30.58
$25.69 · -16.0%-16.0%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+6.3% · $32.50+6.3%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
52.3
fires under 35 · fires near $27.03
vs 50-day
$30.78
at the line
Bollinger
$28.79
no lower pierce · fires near $28.56
VWAP 20
$30.08
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $30.06
Entry level
$30.43
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$27.00
OI strike below · fires near $27.12
MACD
+0.13
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.65×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
5.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.31
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
22 Oct 2026
· in 71 days
Next dividend
4.58% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed