Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) — Integrated Oil & Gas. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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CVE fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 5.78M · 3-mo avg 6.99M

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)

CVECenovus Energy Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · balanced
Bull 1 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyOKPCE inflation days · ~33% smaller swingsOKNeutral tape · 35/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$30.78
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$34.10
center $34.10 · basis · bb upper + high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.02× the norm · 67% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.88×
52-week range$15.63 – $34.16
Below high since 2015-9.5% · $34.16 high
Risk / reward1.46 : 1
Plan stop$28.76
Max pain—
RSI 1443.4 fires under 35 · fires near $29.31
Forensic flags0 clean
Earnings multiple11.8× fwd · 12.1× trailing
P/E vs its own past65th pctile · 11.9× median
Free cash flow yield5.7% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 1.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 55% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
●
43.4
fires under 35 · fires near $29.31
vs 50-day
✓
$30.88
at the line
Bollinger
●
$30.72
no lower pierce · fires near $30.64
VWAP 20
✓
$32.42
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$30.78
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.37
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.88×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
—
not on file
ATRStatic
$1.01
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-10-29
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
2.04% yld
no ex-date on file
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