CSX Corporation (CSX) — Railroads. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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CSX fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 15.10M · 3-mo avg 10.77M

CSX Corporation (CSX)

CSXCSX Corporationloading…
loading…
QTick signal
+3net
3 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 4 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
loading…
$48.87
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$52.00
near a heavy call-option level and a round-number price · midpoint $52.00 · Nov 6
±$2.76
±5.6% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
68% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume15% above normal1.15× its 20-day average
Past year's range$33.63 – $53.60lowest to highest price
From its peak8.4% belowpeak $53.60, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.91 to 1$0.91 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$45.97the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$51.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)45.9fires under 35 · fires near $45.92
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit21.0× next year25.6× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 83%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 18.4×
Cash it generates1.9%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 3.4%. Over the last 20 sessions, 48% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
45.9
fires under 35 · fires near $45.92
vs 50-day
✓
$48.79
at the line
Bollinger
●
$46.67
no lower pierce · fires near $46.12
VWAP 20
✓
$50.37
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$48.87
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$51.00
2026-11-06 expiry · chain of 2026-11-04
MACD
Context●
-0.11
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.15×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.45
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-28
in 55 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.14
ex-date 2026-11-30